OPEC July Output Hits 2017 High of 32.82 mil b/d on Libya Recovery: Platts

OPEC about 920,000 b/d above ceiling, with Equatorial Guinea

Libya's continued dramatic recovery from civil strife pushed OPEC's July output to yet another 2017 high, with the bloc producing 32.82 million b/d, according to the latest S&P Global Platts OPEC survey. Libya exempted from OPEC production cuts that began January 1, averaged 990,000 b/d in July, up 180,000 b/d from June. Fellow exempt member Nigeria averaged 1.81 million b/d, a 30,000 b/d increase on the month, according to the survey. The two exempt countries, along with increased output from Saudi Arabia as the peak summer air conditioning season is now in full swing, have sent OPEC's collective output about 920,000 b/d above its nominal ceiling of around 31.9 million b/d, when new member Equatorial Guinea is added in and suspended member Indonesia is subtracted. Saudi Arabia produced 10.05 million b/d in July, according to the survey. Not including Libya and Nigeria, compliance among OPEC's 12 members with quotas under the production cut agreement remain robust at 114%, down slightly from 116% in June, based on an average of January through July output. That illustrates the challenge OPEC faces in rebalancing the market through its output deal, which also involves 10 non-OPEC producers, as the two exempt countries' recoveries, tenuous though they may be, threaten to undo a large portion of the group's collective cuts.

The combined output of Libya and Nigeria in July was 590,000 b/d above October levels, the month on which OPEC based its production cuts and quotas. Most of Libya's key oil fields have now been brought back online, contributing to output growth in recent months, though some technical issues persist. In late August, Libya's two main rival centers of power tentatively agreed on a ceasefire, raising hopes that production could reach state-owned National Oil Company's 1.25 million b/d target by the end of 2017. Nigerian output has continued its upward trend despite the ongoing force majeure on exports of key crude grade Bonny Light due to pipeline issues.

The output of another key Nigerian crude, Forcados, continued to ramp up last month, and tanker tracking data also showed a steady rise in exports month-on-month. Sabotage attacks on the key pipelines in Niger Delta in July, however, showed that the Nigeria's forward prospects continue to be riddled with uncertainty because of political tensions. OPEC officials have, at least publicly, dismissed the notion that Libya and Nigeria are undercutting their efforts, saying they are happy for the two countries.

Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih in St Petersburg last month said there was room in the market to absorb 800,000-1 million b/d of growth from the OPEC/non-OPEC bloc, including Libya and Nigeria. He pointed out that demand growth forecasts for 2018 range between 1.4 million and 1.6 million b/d, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration has projected US production to increase 600,000 b/d.

COMPLIANCE VARIES

While collective compliance with the cut agreement is strong, results among individual countries are still uneven. OPEC's second largest member Iraq grew production slightly to 4.48 million b/d in July, remaining the least compliant country in terms of output above its quota, which is 4.35 million b/d. Iran, OPEC's third largest producer, also had a slight increase in output to 3.82 million b/d, just above its quota of 3.80 million b/d under the deal, as its barrels in floating storage rose, according to the survey.

UAE oil production likewise rose in July to 2.89 million b/d, above its quota of 2.87 million b/d. Ecuador, which could no longer afford to continue with production cuts, its oil minister said on state television last month, saw a slight rise in output in the month to 530,000 b/d, also above its quota of 520,000 b/d. The OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee, composed of ministers from Kuwait, Russia, Algeria, Venezuela, and Oman, which met in St. Petersburg on July 25, has said it plans to enforce compliance much more tightly going forward. Of the 12 OPEC members with quotas under the deal, eight of them are fully or overly compliant with their allocations, based on an average of January-July output, led by Saudi Arabia, whose seven-month average is 92,000 b/d below quota. The deal calls on OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC partners to cut a combined 1.8 million b/d from October levels. It was recently extended through March 2018. The Platts estimates were obtained by surveying OPEC and oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as reviewing proprietary shipping data.

*Equatorial Guinea figure is only June and July production, as the country joined OPEC on May 25

Notes: On May 25, OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers decided to extend their existing production cuts by nine months -- a move that would keep nearly 1.8 million b/d of crude oil off the market through March 2018. Equatorial Guinea became OPEC's smallest oil producer on May 25, when its application to join OPEC was approved, bringing the oil producer bloc's membership up to 14. The agreement exempts Libya and Nigeria while allowing Iran a small increase in production. Indonesia suspended its OPEC membership on November 30. The estimate for Iraq includes volumes from semi-autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan. OPEC's next formal meeting is November 30 in Vienna.