Iran will be located at the gravitational center of the new route and would be able to serve as a link connecting China to the Middle East, on the one hand, and Europe, on the other hand.
By Bahram
Amir-Ahmadian
Professor and Researcher , Institute for Trade Studies
and Research, Tehran University, Iran
China’s latest
initiative to revive the ancient Silk Road and the huge economic and cultural
project known as the “One Belt, One Road,” have stirred new activities in
countries located along the Silk Road. Countries located along the traditional
path of this huge historical highway, on the one hand, and countries that are
located around it, on the other hand, are interested in playing a part in this
humongous economic project one way or another. Iran is located at the center of
a region, which connects two parts of the land route of this network, which
travels from east to west, but unfortunately, there have been few reactions to
these developments in Iran.
The Silk Road
is the path along which ancient China conducted its trade with South and West
Asia, Europe, and Africa through Central Asia in old times. Since a large part
of consignments containing silk and silk fabrics produced in China reached the
western regions through this road, it was called the “Silk Road.”
The incumbent
leader of China has used an apparently simple, but actually ambiguous term to
delineate his outlook for Asia by calling the new project “One Belt, One Road.”
As Xi Jinping has recently said, this One Belt, One Road project will be an
answer to current needs of China to boost its regional and international
cooperation.
Accumulation
of capital as a result of many consecutive years of economic growth and earning
high foreign exchange revenues has on the whole turned China into the world’s
second economic power after the United States. China, as a result, needs to
find new markets to import energy and raw materials and export its manufactured
goods. Two major factors, that is, China’s burgeoning population, on the one
hand, and its high need to fossil energy sources, on the other hand, have
prompted this economic power to think about putting its economy in better shape
in the future. About 90 percent of the world trade is currently being carried
out through maritime routes. Therefore, access to free waters, on the one hand,
and dominance over maritime routes crossing these waters, on the other hand,
will form two sides of the balance of future world trade between China and the
Western world.
Even now,
China is entangled in maritime disputes with neighboring and other countries an
example of which is ongoing disputes over certain collections of islands which
are claimed by both China and its neighboring countries in the South China Sea.
Due to presence of the United States powerful marine fleet across the Pacific
Ocean, through which vital maritime routes for China cross, Beijing has been
planning to include concerns related to this issue in its military strategy for
2015 in order to work out measures to overcome these obstacles. On the other
hand, in order to reduce its dependence on maritime routes, China has been
trying to find two-way trade, which would in the first phase open new markets
to China’s goods and products as well as technical and engineering services. In
the next phase, China wants such trade to provide it with much-needed energy
resources and raw materials to be used by the country’s industries. This goal
can be met in regions located to the west of China, firstly in Central Asia and
then in the Middle East.
The new Silk
Road initiative is sure to open new opportunities to China through which
Beijing would be able to achieve its long-term goals to boost welfare for its
huge population. Two routes have been under study for building the new Silk
Road. The first route is the same traditional Silk Road, which crosses through
the western part of China to enter Central Asia, and after going through
Turkmenistan enters Iran. It then reaches the Middle East after crossing
through the Iranian territory. The other route is the Silk Road as seen by
European countries. This route follows the traditional path of the Silk Road up
to Turkmenistan from where it avoids entering Iran and instead goes toward
southeastern coast of the Caspian Sea. After reaching the Caspian coast it uses
shipping lines between Turkmenbashi port city on the eastern shores of the
Caspian Sea, which is part of Turkmenistan’s territory, to reach Baku port on
the western shores of the Caspian Sea in the Republic of Azerbaijan, after
which the route continues toward the Black Sea en route to the Mediterranean.
Western
countries have established this route under the generic name of “Trascica”
corridor. Since Western countries play a decisive role in establishing this
route, Chinese officials are not very willing to make large-scale investment in
this path and, in addition, this route would be used for one-way trade, because
at its final destination there are not enough energy resources to meet China’s
need to consumption of energy. Another route is the traditional path of the
Silk Road, which exits China through is northwestern territory in Xinjiang
Province to enter the Central Asia and after going through Turkmenistan, enters
the territory of Iran. Once in Iran, the route would facilitate China’s access
to the Mesopotamia and the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, on the one
hand, while giving it access to the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, on the
other hand. Finally, it goes through Iran to reach Turkey and then continues
its march toward Europe.
Map Attribute: Iran-China Silk Route Rail Link / Source: China Daily/DW 2015
Iran will be
located at the gravitational center of the new route and would be able to serve
as a link connecting China to the Middle East, on the one hand, and Europe, on
the other hand. By joining this initiative as envisaged by China, the Islamic
Republic would be able to promote its geographical situation to a geopolitical
situation as the country has been waiting for years to do so.
It is
noteworthy that real steps have been taken during past months in order to put
this initiative into gear. Beijing has been trying to spend its money in the
way that Xi Jinping has already explained. Chinese companies are also hoping
that they would sign contracts to take charge of many engineering projects that
are part of this big plan, including construction of roads, railroads, and port
facilities as well as oil and gas pipelines. It seems that China has realized
that construction of the new “Silk Road” would be similar to the United States’
“Marshall Plan;” a plan, which came to be known as the most successful project
in the United States’ foreign policy following World War II and through which
Washington managed to help many countries in Western Europe to renovate their
economies following the war.
It must be
noted that this huge plan is eying the traditional route of the Silk Road,
which starts in Xinjiang Province in northwestern China and after entering
Central Asia would continue up to the southern part of Turkmenistan in the city
of Mary before entering Iran. A portion of connecting roads between Iran's land
border with Turkmenistan in the Iranian town of Lotfabad and at Bajgiran
customs crossing in Iran's Razavi Khorasan Province, needs investment in order
to reach a major highway in northern Iran and play its proper role. Of course,
the governor of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration has
recently indicated Iran's willingness to join this initiative and has pointed
out its comparative advantages. However, it must be noted that Iran enjoys very
good conditions in terms of its geographical situation as a result of which,
the country is in a good position to muse over this plan and boost its
geopolitical position in all kinds of initiatives and interactions related to
regional cooperation. In this way, Iran would be able to attract more
investment, create new jobs, and boost activities in such sectors as trade,
transit, transportation, warehousing, and development of ports. In short, the
country would be able to greatly develop its economy by joining this
initiative.
If, at this
historical juncture, Iran proves unable to take good advantage of this
opportunity, the other proposed route, which crosses beyond Iran's northern
borders, would replace the Iran route. The northern route passes through the
Caspian Sea by connecting Turkmenistan’s Turkmenbashi port city in the east to
Baku port in the Republic of Azerbaijan on the western shores of the Caspian
Sea. From there, it crosses the Caucasus corridor to reach the Black Sea and
finally Europe. Alternatively, the northern Caspian route, which crosses
through Kazakhstan and Russian territory, would replace it. These are the
routes that China is not actually willing to invest in as the country’s
thinkers, economists, and strategists have been putting the highest emphasis on
the Iran route.
China is
totally willing to be present in the Middle East. China is hoping that
following the removal of international sanctions against Iran, it would be able
to have close cooperation with the Islamic Republic and take advantage of the
influence that Tehran sways in the Middle East to secure a foothold in regional
markets. Signing of an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 group of countries over
Tehran’s nuclear program, which put an end to this issue through a mutually
acceptable solution, will help China get closer to Iran than ever before. This
is why China has been insisting on choosing the traditional route of the Silk
Road, which includes Iran because it would enable Beijing to play a role in the
Persian Gulf region and finally in the Middle East without facing troubles from
the United States and possibly Russia. Resolution of the ongoing crises in
Syria and Iraq and restoration of tranquility to this region will pave the way
for the revival of the traditional route of the Silk Road from Iran toward the
eastern shores of the Mediterranean and from there to North Africa. These
regions includes countries, which can provide China with its needed energy
resources, on the one hand, while on the other hand, providing a big and
permanent market for Chinese products.
However, when
it comes to the maritime route of the Silk Road, there are many suspicions
about true intentions of China. Beijing’s arrogant behavior in the South China
Sea, where border disputes are going on between China and its neighbors, can
foster the concept that revival of the maritime Silk Road would cause China to
possibly deal with its smaller neighbors in a bullying manner. For this reason,
early reactions to China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative in Southeast Asia
have been mixed with doubt and suspicion.
Key Words: Silk
Road, China’s Initiative, Important Opportunity, Iran's Role, One Belt,
One Road, South and West Asia, Europe, Africa, Central Asia, Xi
Jinping, Xinjiang Province, Maritime Route, South China Sea, Amir-Ahmadian
More By
Bahram Amir-Ahmadian:
*Expansion
of Strategic Relations between Iran and Turkey a Necessity:http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Expansion-of-Strategic-Relations-between-Iran-and-Turkey-a-Necessity.htm
*The
North-South International Corridor, a Factor to Boost Iran's Regional Standing:http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/The-North-South-International-Corridor-a-Factor-to-Boost-Iran-s-Regional-Standing.htm
*Transit
Corridors Offer Iran New Opportunities for International Cooperation:http://www.iranreview.org/content/Documents/Transit-Corridors-Offer-Iran-New-Opportunities-for-International-Cooperation.htm
