By Federica Fanuli
Editor-at-Large, IndraStra Global
Between the
late 2011 and the early 2012, the Arab Spring deformed the recent history of
Yemen. The ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh, whose ran government for over
thirty years, was forced to leave power. Since then, the country is devastated
by the conflict between the Houthi Shiite rebels and the soldiers devoted to
former President against the Saudi led coalition. It’s a complicated war to
understand, because next to the local rebel groups there are external state
actors. The United Nations has tried several solutions, political and
humanitarian, clearly rejected by Saudi Arabia along with Iran,. Point to be noted, both these countries plays key roles in the Yemeni crisis.
The Events of the
Arab Spring
Yemen, a
country situated on the south of the Arabian Peninsula, bordered by the Saudi
Arabia and Oman is one of the poorest States of the Middle East. From 1962
until 1990, Yemen was divided in two State: the Arab Republic of Yemen, ruled
in an authoritarian manner by Ali Abdullah Saleh, and the People's Democratic
Republic of Yemen, Marxist. After thirty-seven years of dictatorship, in 2011,
the President Saleh fell down under the pressure of the Arab Spring, fomented
by Houthis and the Islah militia, within which there are also the Muslim
Brotherhood Yemenis. A political transition led by the Gulf Cooperation
Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates,
Kuwait, Oman and Qatar that are trying to save Yemen from the crisis. The
elections after the removal of Saleh have decreed the victory of Abdel Rabbo
Monsour Hadi as the new President of Yemen. The change of guard is legitimized
by the Arab countries and the West, but in spite of the timid attempts of
ceasefire between the parties, the Houthi movement - which has conquered the
capital Sana'a and a part of the city of Aden with the support former President
Saleh, once a political opponent - has caused the fall of the neo-government. Because
of the conquest of Aden, Houthi and their invasion of the Strait of Bab
el-Mandeb - which connects the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean,
strategic Sea Line of Communication (SLOC) route for the traffic of oil from
the Gulf and the market between Europe and Asia – has started a military
intervention led by the Arab States, with the support of the Arab League and
the United State. Yemen was US ally in the campaign against terrorism and Al
Qaeda - but without the support of the United Nations. The operation
"Decisive Storm" had a goal to provide necessary protection and defence for the
government of President Hadi, in order to reject the Houthi aggression and
counter the presence of Al-Qaeda and it's growing of Black Caliphate on Yemeni
territory.
Rivalry and
the Failure of Negotiations
The risk of an
ideological and political collision between Shiites and Sunnis, i.e., between
Iran and Saudi Arabia, is always higher range of spectrum. Geographical,
historical and cultural reasons push the two rivals to clash - as well as in
Syria - on the Yemeni camp. Historically, the Saudi strategy in Yemen aims to contain
instability across the border and to protect its economic interests by curbing
the involvement of non-state actors and strengthen their influence on the country.
Among the objectives of the Saudi Arabia it seems the monarchy does not
apparently guide Yemen towards a path of democratization and institution
building. A strong and independent neighbouring State could be a threat to the House of Saud. As matter of the fact, Riyadh would not have appreciated the
involvement of Zaydi al-Houthi movement in the national and international peace process, initiated during last Spring. The political recognition of
the group could turn into a serious trouble and eventually granting Iran the
opportunity to consolidate its influence in the area by taking advantage of the
Houthis who are already depict themselves as an armed wing of the Iranian
presence in Yemen. By Shiite propaganda, Tehran could structure the movement of
Hezbollah on the Lebanese model, perfecting the decisive apparatus to wage the
proxy war that sees Iran opposed to the Saudi Arabia. Yemen is a failed State
and it’s a widely accepted fact. And, it is a fertile ground for the
political-religious clash between the two regional powers. Although the
likelihood of stabilization appears to be linked to the desire of the two
competitors, the UN has attempted a series of negotiations to reach a peace agreement,
but in vain. The talks - that were supposed to carry out as of December 15,
2015 - have dropped as a result of the attack that killed the governor of Aden
province, Jafar Mohammed Saad. Apparently an attempt was made by the rebels to
hinder the negotiations, although the murder was later claimed by the Islamic
State, the third wheel in the conflict.
Conclusions
The conflict
in Yemen could depend on the evolution of the conflict in Syria or escalate as
the Syrian crisis proceeds. As in Syria, the civil war in Yemen was born from the cradle of internal instability that was gradually regionalised to become the
field where state and non-state actors clash against each other. The dependence
on external actors might have influenced the decision of the Houthi to not take
part at the negotiations and eventually killing the hope for having a
ceasefire. But, one cannot underestimate the terrorist element in the Yemeni
context. The slowdown of international diplomacy could lead to the
strengthening of Al-Qaeda, although it cannot be ruled out that Al-Qaeda is
already exploiting the confuse situation to increase its influence. This could
be a defeat especially for the American administration, which for years employs
resources in the anti-terror campaign in Yemen.
About The Author:
Federica Fanuli was graduated with
honours in Political Science and International Relations from the University of
Salento and she has obtained a Master’s Degree in Political Science, European
Studies and International Relations at the same University. Foreign Affairs
analyst, she is Editorial Manager of Mediterranean Affairs, a project aiming to
provide analyses that cover the Mediterranean area. Columnist of the Sunday
Sentinel, she is Editorial Board Member of Cosmopolismedia.it and
Editor-at-large of IndraStra Global. She can be reached at her LinkedIn profile.
/ Thomson Reuters ResearcherID : M-9093-2015
Cite This Article:
Fanuli, F.
"OPINION | Taking Stock of On-going Crisis in Yemen"
IndraStra Global 002, no. 02 (2016): 0068.
http://www.indrastra.com/2016/02/OPINION-Taking-Stock-of-On-Going-Crisis-in-Yemen-002-02-2016-0068.html |ISSN
2381-3652|
