By Federica Fanuli
Editor-at-Large, IndraStra Global
During his
terms, from 2005 to 2013, the former President Ahmadinejad defended Iran's
right to restart the nuclear program for civilian purposes. The plan allowed
the Islamic Republic to acquire nuclear arms and became the geopolitical and
economic power of the Middle East. The energy for "peaceful" use
could increase in domestic investment on exports of oil and natural gas, so the
government could have achieved economic growth and protected the country from
the atomic weapons of its neighbours. The nuclear deterrence could have
measured the force of Persian politics, but Ahmadinejad was a too dangerous
threat for Washington and Tel Aviv. Thus the negotiations failed. The sanctions
imposed by West did not produce effects.
The Islamic Republic has continued its
nuclear development and the economic relations between the various monetary
institutions and the Iranian Central Bank as well. An alternative could have
been the domestic destabilization of the country hoping a change of Persian top
leadership, the financial sanctions or the containment policy. Containing the
Iranian power until the isolation of the country. There is a third option: the
use of arms, as a response to Iran's attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz,
which could have forced the regime to negotiate and avert the decline of oil
traffic and the economic damage to the state coffers. After seven resolutions
of the United Nations and a decade of the "double binary", a strategy
of negotiations and sanctions, Ahmadinejad did not make a deal and vanish the
agreement with the West. In 2013, the elections encouraged the overcoming of
the economic and political impasse.
The first speech Rouhani, the new President
of the Islamic Republic, in front of the United Nations has inaugurated a phase
of diplomatic detente. Rouhani has defended the right of producing nuclear fuel
for peaceful and civil purposes, but he has been confident of the positive
evolution of relations with Washington. It is clear that re-opening dialogue
with the United States close to sceptical allies, Israel and the Saudi Arabia,
would allow Iran to have a privileged communication channel, but the economy
has suffocated by the embargo, inflation and youth unemployment, so the country
could not rick the popular anger.
The sessions in Geneva between Iran and the
powers of the 5 + 1 Group have restarted and more then one year of negotiations
the plan – that involves cutting of uranium stocks, the interruption of
enriched plutonium production and the weakening and conversion of some nuclear
sites – has signed. The installations will be subject to international
controls, but the agreement especially fixes the suspension of economic
sanctions. The thawing of international relations between the US and Iran,
historic enemies since the Khomeini revolution of 1979, and the possibility of
an economic partnership worries Israel. As matter of the fact, Iran is one of
the main financiers of the Assad regime and the Shiite movement Hezbollah in
Lebanon. The agreement exacerbates the relations between the Shiite theocracy
and the Sunni Saudi regime.
A clash that is happening in Yemen, where the
Houthi rebels – financed by Tehran – have caused the fall of President Hadi,
prompting Riyadh military engagement. However, after the important nuclear
deal, a new diplomatic era inaugurates the post-sanctions period of the Islamic
Republic, which re-launches economically and politically the Shiite State, with
many worries of the historical enemies. Recently, for the first time the
current President of the Islamic Republic has reached the European Union. The
first stop has been in Italy, then the journey has continued in France and
Germany. The series of meetings had been scheduled for last November, but
because of the terroristic attacks that shocked Paris the historic event has
been postponed. Overcoming the blocks that separate the Islamic Republic from
the West, also due to an intolerant and uncompromising policy of Rouhani's
predecessor, the current President has the advantage of having accepted the
dialogue and reached an important agreement on nuclear power which has
undoubtedly opened the occidental doors of the dialogue to Iran. A careful
choice of a political leadership that has been able to hear the discontent of a
society bent by the economic and the youth unemployment crisis.
For the Islamic
Republic of Iran, it is now time to attract foreign direct investments. The goal is to boost the
growth, so the country need inbound investments about USD 30-50 billion annually. On the
other hand, the strategic vacuum in the fight against Daesh, the deal could
indirectly tie Iran to the mediation of the Syrian conflict and disengages the
West by the military effort. The central government in Tehran is deployed on
the opposite side to that of the European countries and the Saudi Arabia. In
fact, the Shiite Iranian majority supports the regime of Assad, Alawite, a
branch of the Shia Islam, and goes against the Sunni Saudi kingdom. A contrast
that, as well as political, splits the Middle East also religiously. Shiites
versus Sunnis are fighting in Syria and in Yemen, where the proxy war is going
on, it should be contemplated the possibility that Iran, strengthened by the
agreements, does not exclude the domino effect of the instability in the Middle
East, exactly with the support of the Houthi in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon
to expand its influence in all the Middle East region.
About The Author:
Federica Fanuli was graduated with
honours in Political Science and International Relations from the University of
Salento and she has obtained a Master’s Degree in Political Science, European
Studies and International Relations at the same University. Foreign Affairs
analyst, she is Editorial Manager of Mediterranean Affairs, a project aiming to
provide analyses that cover the Mediterranean area. Columnist of the Sunday
Sentinel, she is Editorial Board Member of Cosmopolismedia.it and Editor-at-large
of IndraStra Global. She can be reached at her LinkedIn profile.
/ Thomson Reuters ResearcherID : M-9093-2015
