By Masoud Rezaei When it comes to shaping Iran's military strategy, there exists a dominant intellectual school of thought with...
By Masoud Rezaei
When it comes to
shaping Iran's military strategy, there exists a dominant intellectual school
of thought within the mindset of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and high-ranking
military officials of Iran, which cannot be taken lightly. The existing strategy
firmly believes that the United States cannot put up with an independent Iran
and its final goal is regime change in the country. Based on this mentality,
Iran's powerful influence in neighboring countries would allow it to protect
itself in the face of foreign aggression and military attacks.
Of course, this
mindset has not been created in a void. Just a few months ago and in an interview with the New York Times, US President Barack Obama made a reference
to the root cause of this issue, which proves that the mental images and
concerns of Iran's leadership are not illegitimate. In fact, following the
experience of the war between Iran and Iraq, the Islamic Republic’s military
strategy has been based by the country’s leader on establishing powerful
relations in the region (including with the resistance axis) to make sure that
a similar calamity (like war with Iraq) would not happen again. Apart from the
existential threat that the United States and Israel pose to Iran, there are
also crossing security conflicts in Iran's regional environment most of which
are designed and supported by some of Iran's neighboring countries in order to
weaken the Islamic Republic’s standing. Therefore, security concern is the most
essential issue facing Iran and the first and foremost motivation for the
country’s leadership is survival in the sense of safeguarding national
sovereignty (that is, political independence and territorial integrity) of the
country. This issue has been stressed by Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
Ayatollah
Khamenei, in a recent meeting with officials and commanders of the Islamic
Republic of Iran Army in the northern port city of Noshahr, said in this regard
that “by speeding up their advances and boosting their preparedness, the Armed
Forces must create such a power that the enemies [of Iran] would not even dare
think about invading [the country].” Therefore, the question posed here is
“does this approach recommend adoption of an aggressive policy or is just based
on a defense strategy?” It must be noted that, in fact, the Iranian leader’s
most important goal is to prevent other regional countries from increasing
their power in such a way as to disturb the balance of power to detriment of
Iran. In fact, the foremost concern of Iran's leader is not to maximize the
country’s power, but to maintain his country’s standing within the
international system. This means that Ayatollah Khamenei’s strategy for
countering the efforts and measures taken by rival countries in the region and
the world, is to boost Iran's power to create balance.
Apart from the
United States, which has always been threatening Iran by saying that “all
options are on the table,” the Israeli regime, which is close to Iran in
geographical terms, has never given up its overt threats against the country
and has even worked out numerous scenarios for launching a military attack
against Iran. The new round of such threats began in 2011, when many heated
debates were going on about the reaction that the United States and Israel
would show to Iran's peaceful nuclear activities. It was due to these threats
and aggressive intentions that Iran's military doctrine, through a public
address by Ayatollah Khamenei, entered a new phase on the basis of the balance
of threats. The leader, in an important speech made at Imam Ali Military
Academy in October 2011, announced that “in the face of threat we will resort
to threat.” It was here that the concept of “balance of threat” was added to
Iran's military strategy.
Hefty military
spending by Iran's neighboring countries with support from the West, has
increasingly faced Iran with a “security dilemma.” Therefore, since Iran's
defense capabilities have relatively reduced in comparison with neighboring
countries as a result of multiple kinds of sanctions imposed on the country,
the Islamic Republic has a clear reason to embark on developing its missile industries in order to defend its security. In fact, the proven ability of
Israel and the United States to attack their potential rivals, along with their
immunity to punishment, has encouraged Iran to acquire conventional military
potentials and armament so that its enemies would not be able to attack it.
These realities also force Iran to try and maintain its position in the
regional balance of powers by acquiring the necessary amount of power instead
of pursuing hegemonic goals.
Therefore,
within the framework of defensive realism, the dominant behavioral model and
military doctrine of the Islamic Republic, based on Ayatollah Khamenei's views,
is geared toward creating balance. In this way, Iran assesses threats posed to
it by other countries on the basis of its own relative power, geographical
proximity and propinquity, as well as the defense-offense balance before taking
step toward creating internalized and externalized balance. According to
externalized balance, the leader of Iran believes that the Islamic Republic of
Iran should relay on its national potentialities to boost its power and
counteract threats in a unilateral manner. Iran's foreign policy and defensive
behavior during the imposed war as well as in the course of the nuclear
diplomacy can be analyzed within this framework. According to the model of
creating externalized balance, the Islamic Republic of Iran adopts a
multilateral approach in order to build new coalitions and alliances as a
prelude to creating balance. Iran's policy of looking to the east, which was
based on establishing closer relations with the People’s Republic of China and
membership at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, can be considered as an
example of externalized creation of balance as purported by the Iranian leader
to counter and thwart threats posed by the United States and Israel.
This issue
proves that Iran's military strategy under the command and in line with the approach
of Ayatollah Khamenei is of a defensive nature whose main goal is to maintain
the status quo. Even American officials have at times admitted to this issue.
Therefore, following suit with this military strategy, Iran has turned into an
independent actor with independent defensive approaches, which are based on
active deterrence. According to this approach, as adopted by Ayatollah
Khamenei, Iran has a historical background and important identity in regional
issues and this is why the country never shifts its strategy in the face of
regional issues and continues to pursue a single principle. Therefore, despite
all shortcomings and considerations with which we are faced in this regard,
“defensive realism” is the closest theory of international relations to
Ayatollah Khamenei's way of thinking.
The only
exception and difference between these two is that Kenneth Waltz believed that
due to being located in the midst of such nuclear powers as Israel, India,
Pakistan and Russia, Iran must have nuclear weapons in order to defend itself
and create balance. However, the Iranian leader has issued his religious fatwa,
clearly prohibiting possession and use of all kinds of weapons of mass
destruction and does not believe in such form of balance.
Key Words:
Ayatollah Khamenei, Military and Strategic Thinking, Iran's military Strategy,
Regional Issues, Threats, Internalized and Externalized Balance, Conventional
Military Potentials, Survival, National Sovereignty, Defensive Nature,
About The Author:
About The Author:
Masoud Rezaei, Ph.D. in
International Relations & Visiting Research Fellow at the the Center for
Middle East Strategic Studies
More By The Author:
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