By Elmir Badalov Introduction During the cold war period one of the essential and vital strategic policy of the United St...
By Elmir Badalov
Introduction
During the cold war
period one of the essential and vital strategic policy of the United States of America
was to prevent communist takeovers in the world, despite the fact that in some
cases it led US to get involved in war for instance in Vietnam, as well as US
spent huge amount of money in order to attract some countries to stay far from
communism. After the end of the cold war EU started (1) to build strong relations
with former soviet countries, EU launched some projects and programmes for
those countries, the aim of these initiatives were to help those countries to
overcome financial difficulties, and to complete their economic transformation
process successfully. EU’s specialised projects aimed to bring them even more
closer to the EU. However these countries always have been considered as
backyard of one of the main key players in this region, Russia. Russia never
seems to be happy to see EU’s active presence in this region, it is totally
against interests of Russia in those territories. When Ukraine declared its
interest to sign Association Agreement with EU, first of all Russia via
diplomatic channels tried to create hurdles for Ukraine and played carrot and
stick policy with its neighbour. It ended up, with annexation of Crimea,
another territorial conflict occurred in post-soviet space.
Domino Theory:
Domino theory In the 1950s domino
theory was a core strategy of US foreign policy, the basic explanation of this
theory was communist victory in one nation would quickly lead to a chain
reaction of communist takeovers in neighbouring states. When Ho Chi Minh
proclaimed Vietnam’s independence from (2) France, US government under Harry
Truman, provided financial and military aid to the French, the purpose of this
aid was that communist victory would precipitate the spread of communism
throughout Southeast Asia. It even forced US to get involved in war in Vietnam,
at that time president of US expressed his belief as following: “We should use
our influence in as effective way as we can, but we should not withdraw from
Vietnam." Simultaneously, US implemented Marshall plan, in order to
attract Greece and Turkey and keep them far from communist threat. While
referring to conflict in Vietnam 34th president of US Dwight D. Eisenhower used
“falling domino” principle, the loss of Vietnam, are just incalculable to the
free world, it would lead to similar communist victories in neighbouring
countries. The word of domino theory has been used by Eisenhower, later on it
became (3) popular in International Relations. Despite the fact that, in Laos and
Cambodia communist takeover took place, however communist takeover failed in
other part of Southeast Asia.
EU and Post-soviet countries
Since
the dissolution of the Soviet Union, EU have developed strong and tight
relations with some countries of the former Soviet Union. Partnership and
Cooperation Agreement have been signed with those countries, EU has launched
TACIS (Technical Aid for Commonwealth of Independent States) project in order
to help financially to those countries. Later on (3) post-soviet countries
Latvia, Estonia (4) and Lithuania became fully member of the European Union,
during the Eastern Enlargement process
Russia:
During the history Russia always was
a giant power in so-called post-soviet region and Russia always was dominant
power in this region, Even now Russia have big interests in this region and
Russia is still considering these territories as its backyard. Nevertheless,
from the military and economy perspective Russia is not strong enough as it was
before, however Russia still have some strong tools to have an impact in region
and to change the whole status-quo. While Ukraine was on negotiation stage with
EU, on signing of Association Agreement, this idea didn’t make Moscow happy.
Russia used vulnerabilities of Ukraine, in particular energy rich Russia is a
main energy supplier of Ukraine and Ukraine owed a huge amount of money to
Russia, Russia used this tool, offered new agreement to Ukraine, cut off energy
prices, lend huge amount of money to Ukraine, in order to distract attention of
Yanukovych administration signing Association Agreement with EU. Putin was
aware that in any 6 cases loss of Ukraine, means loss of Georgia, Moldova,
Azerbaijan , Armenia and even Belarus. Yanukovych was more than happy to sign
that agreement with Putin, despite Maidan movement started in Ukraine. At first
glance it seemed very calm uprising, people were demanding from Yanukovych to
sign Association Agreement with EU, however Yanukovych never did so, despite
the pressure, he didn’t hesitate to kill his people, in the end he was forced
to escape from the country. Later on Russia annexed Crimea, Russian military
bases which is located in Sevastopol invaded Crimea and referendum was held in
this territory, the outcome of referendum was that inhabitants of Crimea
declared that they would like to be a part of Russia, rather than Ukraine.
Despite, the objection and criticism of International Community and Human
Rights Organisations, Putin’s army is yet to withdraw from Crimea. The idea
behind of this annexation was simple as Eisenhower described “falling domino”
principle.
Conclusion:
Despite
EU is keen on developing strong relations with post-soviet countries, it should
be considered that Russia is still powerful in this region. Even though, from
the economy and military prespective Russia isn’t strong enough, it still have
very strong tools to jeopardise the whole situation in the region. In 2008 war
with Georgia and annexation of Crimea has shown that, Russia considers each of
this country as domino, if one domino falls it may lead to absolute disaster
for Russia and it would even put the sovereignty of Russia under threat. At
least for now, domino theory by Putin administration is being implemented
successfully, despite the sacrifice and loss of its partners and some allies.
About the Author:
Elmir Badalov is Azerbaijan based independent political analyst specialising in current political situation in Central and Eastern Europe and writing articles based on observation and analyse with primary focus in reviewing current situation in Russian Foreign Policy, towards Post-soviet space.
References:
- Cold War History, http://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/cold-war-history
- Domino Theory, http://www.americanforeignrelations.com/A-D/The-Domino-Theory.html
- Eisenhower Doctrine, http://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower/speeches/speech-3360
- The European Commission’s Tacis Programme 1991 – 2006, http://www.enpi-info.eu/files/publications/tacis_success_story_final_en.pdf
- Eastern Partnership, http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/international-affairs/eastern-partnership/index_en.htm
- The Ukraine Crisis Timeline, http://csis.org/ukraine/index.htm
