By Prof. Efraim Inbar
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The very bad agreement
reached yesterday between the Western powers and Iran underscores the weakness
of the US; grants Iran nuclear legitimacy; spurs nuclear proliferation in the
region; bolsters Iran’s ability to project force and support terrorism; changes
the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran; and brings the US into
sharp conflict with Israel, leading perhaps to an Israeli military strike on
Iran.
There are (at least) six significant and immediate
bad results from the agreement reached yesterday between the Western powers and
Iran.
1.
America the weak: The way in which the negotiations were conducted underscored
the weakness of the US. The Obama administration was willing to offer almost
unlimited concessions to the skillful Iranian negotiators, ignoring all its own
deadlines and red lines. It is clear that President Obama was desperate for a
deal in order to leave office with a ”legacy.”
While
Washington congratulates itself on a “successful” result, what counts is the
perceptions of the countries in the region. Alas, all countries in the region
can only conclude that America is indeed weak. America has capitulated to Iran.
2.
Nuclear legitimacy: Instead of insisting on the dismantling of all uranium
enrichment facilities in Iran, as was accomplished in Libya, the US actually
accorded international legitimacy to a large-scale Iranian 2. nuclear
infrastructure, including thousands of centrifuges. The deal leaves almost
intact all central components of the Iranian nuclear program.
US
Secretary of State John Kerry has in fact admitted that Iran might be just
three months away from a nuclear bomb within the framework of the nuclear
agreement. In doing so, the US has totally ignored UN Security Council
Resolution 1696 of July 2006, which demanded that Iran suspend enrichment
activities, as well as American demands for the dismantlement of the nuclear
facilities.
3.
Proliferation: This agreement is a stimulus for nuclear proliferation. Indeed,
Saudi Arabia has announced its desire for “the same type of infrastructure”
that has been allowed to Iran. It is to be expected that countries such as
Egypt and Turkey will emulate Saudi Arabia. These states share Iranian
ambitions for a leadership role in the region and it is highly unlikely they
will refrain from acquiring capabilities that match Iran’s. Actually, the
regional nuclear race has already begun and a multi-polar nuclear Middle East
is on the way. This is a strategic nightmare.
An
American attempt to provide a nuclear umbrella (“extended deterrence”) to the
Gulf States in order to forestall nuclear proliferation already has failed.
Saudi King Salman refused to attend the US-Gulf State summit. This reflects disappointment
with what Washington had to offer, and signals Saudi intentions to try to take
care of itself on its own.
4.
Force projection and terrorism: The international sanctions regime
against Iran already has eroded. States and businesses already are lining-up to
capitalize on the economic opportunities emerging in the Iranian market. The
unfreezing of Iranian bank accounts and the projected increase in oil
production will enrich the coffers of the Iranian regime with more than $100
billion. This will allow the diversion of many resources to an Iranian arms
build-up, and will buttress Tehran’s aspiration to project force far beyond its
borders. Moreover, the cash influx enhances Iranian capability for supporting
proxies, such as the Shiite-controlled government in Iraq, Assad’s regime in
Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. The
Iranian capacity for subversion and for exporting terror will be greatly
magnified.
5. Balance
of power: The American decision to accept Iran as a nuclear-threshold state,
and Obama’s statements in favor of a “responsible Iranian role” in the region,
accompanied by an inflated American threat perception of ISIS – signal a most
significant change in American Middle East foreign policy. This accord marks an
end to Iran’s regional isolation. Instead, America seems to be siding with the
Shiites against Sunnis. This move changes dramatically the regional balance of
power, instilling even greater uncertainty in regional politics.
The naive American belief that Iran can become a “normal” state – will backfire. While
cautious, Iran is nevertheless a “revisionist” power trying to undermine the
status quo. It does not hide its hegemonic aspirations. Its subversive
activities in Shiite Bahrain and the Shiite eastern province of Saudi Arabia
(where most of the oil is), and in other Gulf countries, might create an
unbearable situation for the West. Eventually, Iran might even attain its
declared goal of putting an end to the American presence in the Persian Gulf.
6. Conflict
with Israel: American policy is now on a collision course with Israel. The
consensus in Israel is that Obama signed a very bad deal, which is dangerous
for the Middle East and well beyond it. Israelis, as well as most Middle
Easterners, do not buy the promise of a moderate Iran. They know better.
Israelis take seriously the calls of the Iranian mobs “Death to America. Death
to Israel.”
Thus an
Israeli military strike on Iran has become more likely, and in the near future
– before the US puts the brakes on military supplies to the Israeli army.
This article was first published at BESA Center Website on July 19, 2015
ABOUT AUTHOR:
Efraim Inbar, a professor of political studies
at Bar-Ilan University, is the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic
Studies, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.