By Fanny Ragot
Research Intern, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
In February 2015, a new strategic trilateral dialogue was held between
Pakistan and Afghanistan under Chinese coordination, illustrating Beijing’s
recent commitment to support Kabul in pacifying its country.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, elected in mid-2014, has been reaffirming his
willingness to set the wheels of negotiations in motion. It implies engaging in
negotiations with Pakistan to resolve the problem of Pakistan’s support for the
Taliban, across the Durand Line. While the dialogue is still new, China appears
to be brokering these discussions.
That Beijing is evidently involving itself – in shaping the future of
Afghanistan and Pakistan – more than ever underscores a considerable shift in
the way China deals with its neighbourhood. Since 2001, China had been limiting
its intervention to minimal security contribution; but over the past two years,
a proactive tone has been used vis-à-vis improving bilateral ties with
Afghanistan and the commitment of an increased Chinese economic footprint in
the region.
What are Chinese Interests in this Region?
First,
China is extremely concerned for its national security, particularly due to the
spread of terrorism and terrorist ideology into the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous
Region. The Uyghur separatist movement is a national security matter with
important external connections. China already has some counter terrorism
measures in place that it implements inside its borders. Tackling terrorism,
especially the Taliban, across the Chinese border to ensure that Afghanistan
does not become a strong base for Uyghur militancy complements the effort.
China also feels the need to secure a stable environment around its oil and gas
pipelines,trade routes with the Gulf countries as well as all its other
economic interests. China’s energy needs are constantly increasing, and Beijing
cannot afford to let territories its pipeline networks run through to fall prey
to terrorism and instability. The success of Beijing’s New Silk Route too
depends heavily on the stability of the region.
The Chinese involvement in the resolution of the Afghan conflict also responds
to a global plan of empowerment at the international level. According to China,
its involvement in Afghanistan is part of its ‘Peaceful Development’ plan that
focuses on stabilizing and securing its neighborhood. Afghanistan was the
missing piece of the Chinese regional diplomacy and ensuring stability in this
country would have a beneficial effect on the neighborhood. For Beijing,
securing a peaceful neighborhood is sine qua non if it wants to meet its
aspiration of becoming a global superpower.
Chinese Assets in Afghanistan
What
makes China a particularly interesting ally for Afghanistan is its position
between the three main parties involved in the conflict, justifying the Afghan
president’s choice to make Beijing the destination of his first official visit.
On one hand, China has had a long-term partnership with Pakistan that could be
helpful for Kabul to pressurize Pakistan into taking coordinated measures to
get rid of the safe havens Taliban find in the country. Despite the détente
between Afghanistan and Pakistan since Ghani’s election, drawing a more
suitable backdrop for cooperation than in the last decade, Pakistan does not
allow fair negotiations. China actually has the power to influence the
negotiations by taking on a mediator role.
Beijing can do so because it has several economic and
non-economic counter-arguments to deter Pakistan from refusing to cooperate. Given
the introduction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project – for which
China is mobilizing $46 billion (approximately 20 per cent of Pakistan’s
GDP)–Pakistan will be heavily economically dependent on Beijing. Besides,
taking actions against terrorism in Pakistan is a way for China to fix
Pakistan’s lack of attention vis-à-vis Chinese security interests, and to give
Islamabad the means to flush out the insurgents; and which would benefit both
Kabul and Beijing.
China’s links with the Taliban, which were low key before and after 2001 appear
to be becoming more and more indiscreet. In November 2014, a Taliban delegation
was sent to China and even though the entire contents of the discussions are
still unclear,the very move of not interacting via intermediaries anymore gives
China a proper space to open dialogue with them.
Overall, China benefits from strategic partnerships in its favor with Pakistan
as well as the Taliban, which turn out to be of great interest not only for
Kabul but also for the whole Chinese project of stabilising the region. By
responding positively to Ghani’s demand of mediating the peace talks, China
attested its willingness to protect its interests. Beijing’s involvement in the
Afghan peace process will be a veritable test for its new foreign policy
orientation as well as its diplomatic capability, especially since the US
failed to durably stabilize the region.
With China taking the lead in the discussions between Afghanistan, Pakistan and
the Taliban, India feels isolated owing to the sense that it has been relegated
to a supporting role. However, India is unlikely to be sidelined in
Afghanistan. New Delhi is still an important strategic partner for Kabul, and
the future of their bilateral relations depends on how India manages to balance
and maintain its ties with Kabul.
This article was first published at Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi on 3rd June 2015.
