Azerbaijan's Plans for 'Reintegration' of Karabakh Armenians Following Victory

By IndraStra Global News Team

Cover Image Attribute: Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh / Source: Davit Ghahramanyan/AFP via Getty Images

As Azerbaijan makes rapid strides towards reclaiming full control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the fate of the territory's ethnic Armenian population hangs in the balance. The Azerbaijani government has expressed its intention to "reintegrate" Armenians into the Azerbaijani state following its one-day offensive and the surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto ethnic Armenian leadership. However, specific details about this reintegration remain elusive, and the credibility of Baku's promises to safeguard the rights and security of potential new Armenian citizens is in doubt, particularly among the traumatized and fearful Karabakh population.
On September 21, representatives from the Azerbaijani central government and Karabakh Armenians initiated discussions to negotiate the terms of a new arrangement after the Azerbaijani offensive. Nagorno-Karabakh authorities report casualties, including at least 200 killed, 10 civilians, and over 400 wounded. It's important to note that these casualty figures could not be independently confirmed. While the talks did not yield immediate results, negotiations are set to continue.
David Babaian, an adviser for foreign policy to the separatist government's de facto leader Samvel Shahramanian, expressed concerns after the meeting with Azerbaijani officials: "We do not know what guarantee of security our people will get. This needs to be resolved."
In the aftermath of the assault, uncertainty and fear gripped Karabakh. Many Karabakh Armenians shared on social media that they had been separated from family members during the offensive, and sporadic reports of ongoing fighting surfaced. Russian peacekeeping forces in the region reported evacuating over 5,000 people from the regions of Martakert, Martuni, and Askeran as Azerbaijani forces advanced into these areas. As of late September 21, these peacekeepers hosted 704 displaced individuals at their base in Khojaly.
Azerbaijan has reported the deaths of six Russian peacekeepers during its military offensive, with five killed "by mistake" by Azerbaijani forces and one by Karabakh Armenian fighters.
As of now, Azerbaijani forces have yet to enter the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Stepanakert in Armenian and Xankendi in Azerbaijani. Public services and administration continue to be managed by the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR), which has governed the territory since the early 1990s following the Armenian separatists' victory over Azerbaijan in their initial war.
A generation of ethnic Armenians in Karabakh has grown under NKR rule with Armenia's support. Previous diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict yielded minimal progress.
Following another six-week war in 2020, brokered by Russia, which effectively recognized Armenia's loss of control over significant parts of NKR-controlled territory, Azerbaijan's recent one-day offensive has forced a surrender that includes the complete disarmament and disbandment of NKR's armed forces. The fate of NKR itself remains uncertain, as Azerbaijan regards it as a criminal junta.

Map of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Azerbaijan has assured that the Armenians of Karabakh can continue to live in the region. However, this would represent an exception to the established pattern of zero-sum territorial control and ethnic cleansing in the Caucasus. For instance, when Armenia emerged victorious in the 1990s, over 600,000 ethnic Azerbaijanis were forced to flee the territory taken by Armenians. Similarly, Armenians living in territories regained by Azerbaijan in 2020 were displaced and unable to return. In separatist regions like South Ossetia and Abkhazia, only small pockets of ethnic Georgian residents remain following successive wars, as most Georgian residents were also forced to flee.
Until 2020, Azerbaijan repeatedly pledged that if Armenia peacefully returned the territories seized in the first war, the Karabakh Armenians would enjoy "the highest possible autonomy" within Azerbaijan, drawing parallels with autonomous regions like Tyrol in Italy or the Aland Islands in Finland. However, this promise was revoked when the 2020 war began.
Some Azerbaijani officials have discussed plans more openly after the recent offensive and NKR's surrender. Hikmet Hajiyev, a senior foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, stated that a plan is "ready" and that all rights of Karabakh Armenians, including educational, cultural, religious, and municipal electoral rights, would be guaranteed.
However, many observers remain skeptical about these promises, especially considering the severe and asymmetric violence that preceded negotiations. Laurence Broers, an associate fellow at Chatham House's Russia and Eurasia Program, remarked, "The commitments Azerbaijan is making are not seen as credible by the wider population in Armenia." The likelihood, he added, is a significant outflow of people to Armenia in the coming weeks and months.
While some Karabakh Armenians have sought protection from Russian peacekeepers and transit at the Stepanakert airport, reports suggest that many have not been allowed to leave. Armenia's government still needs to deem evacuation necessary.
The dire humanitarian situation in Karabakh, following a nine-month blockade by Azerbaijan prior to the military offensive, has led many to call for the safe evacuation of the population. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether there will be a significant outflow of people or even a complete exodus of the ethnic Armenian population.
Philip Gamaghelyan, a peace activist, suggests that Armenians should be temporarily allowed to leave Karabakh, with the possibility of a safe return in the future. However, Lala Darchinova, an activist and co-editor at the Caucasus Edition journal, acknowledges the complexity of the situation and the uncertainty regarding whether people will be able to return.
The fate of Karabakh Armenians is also tied to geopolitical considerations, particularly Russia's presence in the region. The presence or absence of an Armenian community in Karabakh could influence the future of the Russian peacekeeping mission there.
In a phone call on September 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of ensuring the rights and security of the Armenian population in Karabakh.
The near-term prospects for Armenians in Karabakh may resemble the situation of Serbs in Kosovo, marked by antagonism and limited interaction. In the long run, the situation might parallel that of Armenians in Turkey or Georgia.
Anna Ohanian, a political science professor, believes that whatever the Azerbaijani government offers to Karabakh Armenians is likely to be a facade, given Azerbaijan's coercive tactics. She suggests that post-war conditions for Armenians in Azerbaijan will not be favorable, and the promises may be superficial.
The future remains uncertain for the ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh as they grapple with the aftermath of the conflict and the prospects of reintegration into Azerbaijani society.

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