India-Israel relations and India-United States (U.S.) relations have a come long way since the days of the cold war. As diplomatic relations between the Israel and India strengthened so has India-U.S. relations gained a lot of cohesion in the recent decade. Initially the United States began exerting its influence over policy, trade and sales between them especially those related to defense, and still does so officially.
By Amit Mukherjee
PBC-Post Doctoral Research Fellowship 2015
National Security Studies Center,University of Haifa, Israel
India-Israel relations and India-United States (U.S.) relations have a come long way since the days of
the cold war. As diplomatic relations between the Israel and India strengthened
so has India-U.S. relations gained a lot of cohesion in the recent decade.
Initially the United States began exerting its influence over policy, trade and
sales between them especially those related to defense, and still does so
officially. The United States exerts its control over Israeli weapons and
technology sales and transfers to India for a variety of reasons. Although it
is not the sole area of interest or region where the United States exerts its
influence it is important given India‘s geographical location and rise to
global power status.
One reason
that the United States objects to Israeli weapons and technology transfers even
now is due to their collaborative nature and the presence of US technology and
equipment which are subject to U.S. export controls and approval. The Arms Export
Control Act (AECA) requires that no defense services be transferred from the
U.S. government to a foreign government unless the recipient country agrees to
the terms under the AECA. This means that it will not transfer the defense
article to a third party or use it for any other purpose other than that which
it was intended for without U.S. approval. These restrictions not only apply to
defense articles or services but include dual-use technologies as well that are
considered to possess the potential to endanger U.S. security interests under
the Export Administrative Act. In conjunction with the restrictions under the
Arms Export Control Act and Export Administrative Act the US State Departments
Office of Defense Trade Controls (DTC) enacts further regulations. Through the
Bureau of Political-Military Affairs the AECA utilizes the International
Traffic in Arms Regulation, which contains a munitions list that provides a
list of technologies, weapons and services deemed to be detrimental to U.S. security interests if exported.
One example of
U.S. influence over Israeli transfer of weapons and technology can be seen with
the Lavi controversy. Due to its technologies coming from Washington and
therefore subject to the AECA export restrictions on the Lavi project prevented
sale of technology or joint development even though a significant portion of
the technologies were owned by Israel.
Israel‘s
Defense budget that is around 14 -15 billion USD gives a spot in the top 15 ranked
nation for military spending in the world, by IISS analysis. However this
position and preparedness comes at a very steep price. Israel nearly spends
about 17% of its total budget on defense. This shall have a 10% increase
given last year‘s conflict in the budget allocation in 2015. Although usually
not up for debates, Israel is finding it harder to press for higher budgetary
allocation for defense over the last few years. Recent political and social
movement and development in the European sphere of relations with Israel, it
becomes imperative that Israel starts to develop relations with newer partners.
In this India can play a crucial role given its steadfast defense relationship
since normalization of relations in 1992. As Israel looks to diversify its
sources of revenue generation, investing in India would garner a steady and
long term provisioning for sharing this concern. In the past decade India
Israel annual defense trade has been pegged around 1 to 1.5 billion USD
estimated, with a potential to increase in the future given trends in
cooperation and as a result of Free Trade Agreement, which may be signed in the
near future. It is estimated to have an impact of increase in annual trade
volume to three times the current mark to about 15 billion USD. That would
amount to equal the current defense budget itself, if successful.
India too
faced a loss of development and induction time due to U.S. sanctions post Pokhran
Nuclear tests in 1998. India‘s LCA program that heavily depended on the GE
404 / 414 Engines caused huge delay in the successful development and
deployment of the LCA with the indigenous Kaveri Engine, which is said to have
less power than what was envisaged for the LCA. However with the lifting of
restrictive sanctions for these engines India shall procure initially the GE
404 and later 414 engines. The subsequent delay caused is one of many reasons that
Indian decision makers show reluctance to accept newly proposed initiatives for
critical hardware that even though proposed by the USA, has not been vigorously
sought after due to restrictive transfer of technology clauses, and trust
deficit. Such areas of cooperation need clarity and trust which has been
dismally low in the past and given best of intentions, needs a lot to be done
to convert them into mutually satisfactory deals and ventures. The recent
decision in 2009 to halt supply of GE engines for India‘s Stealth Shivalik
class Ships, due to its internal considerations, puts doubt in the minds of
Indian decision makers about the reliability of the Americans in general, as
has been the notion since the sanctions of 1998. Even though this decision to
ban GE from facilitating its engines for operational status was not merely
meant for India, even UK and Australia faced a similar ban. It only put strain
on the already strong held notion of undependable reliance in times of
critical needs. Even though US went into corrective mode later and offered
state of the art fighter jets for the Indian Air force deal of MMRCA the Indians
responded by removing the American offer on the basis of cost viability keeping
the fences of doubts of reliability still intact. These fences of mistrust
have to be overcome by mutual consent and joint collaborations within the
framework of levels of security, and trilateral cooperation must be the higher
end game. In this particular case India- Israel relations can play a decisive
role as Israel is pivoted in a very trusted position by both India and
traditionally by the USA, notwithstanding the recent incidents that suggest
shift in US approach towards Israel.
The start
towards change in intent and subsequent action are expected to usher in
optimistic trends with the Prime Ministerial visit of Mr. Modi to the U.S. last
year. This visit was subsequently reciprocated by the President of the United
States, Barak Obama as chief guest this Year, on India‘s Republic Day. This
highlights the changing posture and dynamics which intends to go beyond
pleasantries of India – U.S. relations.
The recent
negotiations and formation of the Joint venture between India‘s Kalyani group
and Israel‘s Rafael for “..development and manufacture a wide range of
missiles, remote weapon systems and advanced armour solutions is an era away
from the way India & Israel interacted for defense relations among others,
keeping everything under wraps. Success stories that need to build further
along on the lines of Joint development need clearing mindset and bureaucratic
hurdles in all three partnering nations. American concern with the implications
of India‘s increased weapons capability on the South Asian military balance,
is declining albeit gradually. Its fears that if India increases its military
power it will seek to expand its sphere of influence through military ventures,
is beginning to look like an asset to counter China‘s aggressive moves in the
Indian Ocean region and the Pacific.
Aside from the
US interests to maintain the status quo of the regions military balance and
balance of power, its veto of Israeli sales to India have not been solely for
humanitarian or regional concerns. The United States has pressured Israel to
ban the sale of certain weapons and technologies to other countries including
India for fear that it would undermine their ability to enter the market to
sell a similar item. Moreover it desires to create a friendlier climate with
which it can increase high-tech trade and forge strategic ties with India. The
intended objective it would seem would be to increase American influence or ties
that it wants to create for Washington to have in the Indian American
international relations. However, with the recent selection of Israeli Spike missiles
in the face of American proposal to sell and co-develop Javelin anti-tank
missile, and the subsequent signing of renewal of Defense Framework agreement
of 2005 with impetus on defense trade, (joint exercises, co-operation in
anti-piracy and maritime security operations and with an element of Defense
technology trade initiative), still intact, with four of the 17 offered
proposals, namely Raven Minis UAVs, roll on and roll off kits for C-130, mobile
electric hybrid power source and Uniform Integrated Protection Ensemble
Increment, within the renewed tenets of the agreement, suggests that India‘s
market share and size can accommodate security systems, weapons and technology
from the US and Israel without exclusivity to anyone. More so as the U.S. has the
advantage in sharing technology and systems, that remains at present an “American
only” option.
As previously mentioned, Israel is a recipient of U.S. aid and technology and therefore a
variety of restrictions are placed on sales or transfers of weapons and
technology from Israel to a third party by U.S. exporting laws which restrict
such transfers even if there have been alternations done, or the majority of
technology is owned by the seller.The U.S policy of persuasion with regards
to Israel has been seen on a number of other occasions where Israel sought
defense contracts with other countries to fulfill its interests. This needs to
be simplified where India‘s security interest are concerned, with regards to
sale and purchase of Israeli weapons and weapons systems, to gather trust
potential between the US and India.
The US
understanding and policy towards India, its position in the Asia Pacific,
security, developments and other scenarios is based on the U.S. needs and
interests in the region. The United States sees India as a rising global power
with a similar government structure and the largest democracy in the world,
therefore making India a natural partner. From the 2nd Bush administration to
the Obama administration the United States policy towards India has gone from a
very favorable policy towards India to ones that have favoured China over India.
Under the Bush administration the view was that the U.S. ―must deal wisely with
the world‘s largest democracy. Soon to be the most populous country in the
world, India has the potential to keep the peace in the vast Indian Ocean area
and its periphery. We need to work harder and more consistently to assist India
in this endeavor. This policy was seen to gain significance in mid-2001 when
―India and the United States were building a new relationship that was based on
military ties and an increasingly similar world view. The Obama
administration policy was one that began with policies that had favoured China
over India since it viewed China as essential to solving global issues, now a
changing and challenging proposition to hold on to given recent Chinese
escapades to break the status quo of US dominance in the Pacific theatre,
security concerns with US allies like Japan and South Korea and hostile
countries like North Korea. According to congressional reports from 2011, the
basis of US-India partnership stems from its ―geography of a now strategically
important South Asia region, and its vibrant economy, pluralist society,
cultural influence and growing military power‖ which has made it a ―key focus
of the U.S. The recent visit by the Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter and
his discussions with Indian counterparts including the Defense Minister of
India is seen as a favorable element in growing India US trust and
cooperation.
As India
continues to develop its position within the international community its
leadership role in the world especially in the Asia-Pacific region with
involvement in South & South-East Asia, and Central Asia becomes
increasingly significant. The United States views India‘s presence as having
the ability to deter regional conflict, prevent nuclear proliferation into
South Asia and as a partner that can aid the U.S. efforts to counterbalance
China‘s influence in the region. The United States policy is concerned with
ensuring the strategic stability in Asia and believes it gets affected by the
penetration of weapons of mass destruction, due to the increase and spread of
terrorism and the rise of china as a potential power in the region.56
India‘s ―look
east‖ policy, with its economic liberalization has allowed it to expand its
commercial, diplomatic and security ties with East and South East Asia. These developments with its eastern neighbors are likely in response to China‘s
growing regional influence and will act to further offset China‘s influence. To
accomplish this the United States has offered weapons and weapon systems to
India to further develop its military muscle and defense imports while ensuring
the strategy does not undermine the willingness of all to cooperate on global
issues.
Although some
Indian officials have been said to be wary of the implications of closer
military and strategic ties with the U.S. and the effect it will have on their
future related to freedom in designing their own foreign policy, in 2002, we
saw some of these fears allayed when the first major arms trade from the U.S.
to India occurred. This was subsequently repeated in numerous defense sales
programs that have taken place since that includes USS Trenton, the amphibious
landing Ship, 8 P8 Maritime reconnaissance Aircraft, 6 C130J Hercules aircraft,
10 C17 Globemaster Aircraft, and now recently approved purchase of 145 units of
US M777 light howitzers, so far, through various deals and provisions
specially under Foreign Military Sales. These deals have led to an increase in
the much needed sense of security cooperati on and joint military exercises
between the two countries.
To achieve the
transformation of relations the United States sought to lift the restrictions
on the India for supply of nuclear fuel. In 2005 the Bush administration
lobbied for and achieved the removal of these restrictions claiming it would
―strengthen nonproliferation in the region.This policy encouraged foreign
investors to do business with India but its own American parliamentary policies
still restricted the involvement of American companies. In conducting these
deals the United States didn‘t require India to ―sign the comprehensive Nuclear
Test Ban Treaty or put a moratorium on further production of fissile materials
for weapons. This agreement will allow India to carry out trade of nuclear
fuel and technologies with other countries and significantly enhance its power
generation capacity. Even though the India US deal is still pending its full
fruition due to individual concerns in the agreement entangled in the liability
provisions of the act by both parties, it led to the general perception that it
would be all-right to allow India to have Nuclear fuel, given its perceived and
known status of reliable and responsible nation. This in turn allowed several
other countries to conclude deals with India for her to get nuclear fuel. The
recently concluded deal with Canada during Prime Minister Modi‘s recent visit
to supply India with 3000 metric Tonnes Uranium fuel is one such arrangement
among several nations that include Mongolia, Namibia, Kazakhstan, South Korea,
Australia, France & Russia who have signed agreements to supply India with
Nuclear fuel. When the US India agreement goes through, India is expected to
generate an additional 25,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020, bringing total
estimated nuclear power generation to 45,000 MW64.
International
relations and security considerations in the neighborhood between India and
Pakistan have effects on American interests in regions such as in Afghanistan.
While Indian peacekeeping capabilities and ties to Afghanistan have the
potential to benefit U.S. efforts there, the tensions with India and Pakistan
put the U.S in a position that potentially harms relations with both
countries. The U.S. sees Pakistan as essential to its efforts in Afghanistan
due to its proximity, providing it a strategic position and assets, while India
has been the largest contributor to Afghan reconstruction projects. The
tensions between the two countries are exacerbated by their desired role in
Afghanistan with Pakistan claiming the U.S. should use its influence over India
to remove its presence there. India on the other hand claims that it would not
be there if the people did not welcome their presence which is supported by
its historical policy of not intervening where it is not welcome.
Although the
Obama administration has refrained from taking a direct role in the dispute
between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, its position is that it is linked to
regional peace and stability. However, the greater the involvement of US and
Israel in the region with India, politically (US-Israel-India), militarily
(US-India-Israel, for shared technology and weapons and equipment),
economically (US-India-Israel), through integrated projects and programs, the
lesser the chance of mischief by state and non-state actors intending to harm
peace and security in the region.
India‘s desire
to shift imports to co-production ventures with foreign suppliers ensuring it
is not totally reliant on any one country, and hence has opened up its options
for forming collaboration with Israel and US. In recent years ―Israel has
roughly equaled Russia in its value of defense exports to India…topping 2
billion dollars annually. And USA has become the largest supplier since
then, in 2014. There have also been new joint projects to develop missile
technologies. Defense and high tech sectors should continue to succeed and be
supplemented by Israeli defense technology and there is reason to believe relations
will further strengthen in times to come, given now the First Prime Ministerial
visit has been declared. U.S policy should work to satisfy interests and needs
of self and India as well. Due to its growing role within the international community
it has the potential to positively influence to world security and the regional
security. Bringing it into the international community has benefits in the
trilateral interest.
About The Author:
Amit Mukherjee (E-3696-2016), PBC-Post Doctoral Research Fellowship 2015. National Security Studies Center,University of Haifa, Israel
This article is an excerpt from a research article, titled "India-Israel-US Trilateral Cooperation Security Perspective:
Challenges and Scope" published at FPRC New Delhi Journal.
Download The Paper - LINK
