Iran's moderates and reformists have had nearly a week to celebrate their return from a decade of political marginalization in elections that recast the ranks of the parliament and the clerically dominated Assembly of Experts, which selects and oversees the supreme leader. But how much has really changed?
By Golnaz Esfandiari
Image Attribute: Iran Election 2016 via MajlisMonitor.com / Creative Commons
Iran's
moderates and reformists have had nearly a week to celebrate their return from
a decade of political marginalization in elections that recast the ranks of the
parliament and the clerically dominated Assembly of Experts, which selects and
oversees the supreme leader. But how much has really changed?
Here are nine
things you should know about the results of the latest voting under Iran's
tightly controlled, carefully vetted, political system.
Hard-Liners
Were Dealt A Blow...
The results of
the votes demonstrate a rejection of hard-line views and policies.
The message
was particularly emphatic in the capital, where moderates won all 30 seats
reserved for the parliament and 15 of 16 Tehran seats in the Assembly of
Experts.
"Tehran
is the political hub and the definitive center of power," says analyst Saeed
Barzin, highlighting the psychological blow.
Two clerics
known for their radical worldviews failed to keep their seats in the Assembly
of Experts. Out is Ayatollah Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a longtime supporter of
hawkish ex-President Mahmud Ahmadinejad known for his hard-line views,
including saying recently that people's votes don't matter in an Islamic
system. Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the current head of the Assembly of Experts
and former judiciary chief who has opposed any loosening of social norms, was
also defeated in Tehran. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, who heads the powerful
Guardians Council, snuck in at the bottom of the Assembly of Experts list from
Tehran.
"People
didn't trust those who don't value their vote and opinions, they voted for the
opposite side," the popular news site Asriran.com argued on March 1.
"The
election results were surely a big victory for moderate forces and a terrifying
failure for hard-liners," Saeed Laylaz, an economist who advised former
reformist President Mohammad Khatami, told the Financial Times.
...But They're
Not Gone
Despite the
embarrassing defeat in Tehran, hard-liners reportedly won 78 races for the
290-seat parliament. Moderate forces have so far been declared winners in 83
races and independents 60. The fate of a further 69 seats will be decided in
run-offs expected in April.
Hard-liners
remain in charge of powerful state bodies, including the judiciary and the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) that are so actively involved in
state repression. Those powerful bodies are unlikely to veer in the near future
from their course of repression.
And while some
reports question the health of the staunchly conservative and anti-Western
supreme leader, 76-year-old Ali Khamenei, he continues to have the final say in
Iran's religious and political affairs.
Reformists Are
Not Back
The reformist
gains are a boost for the pro-reform camp that was able to reconnect with
voters. But it doesn't mean that Iran is seeing a reemergence of the reformist
movement that rose to prominence with the 1997 election of Mohammad Khatami as
president.
Many of the
reformist camp's most prominent figures were disqualified from these elections.
The reformists responded with a so-called List of Hope -- an alliance of
reformists, moderate conservatives, and pragmatists supportive of the relative
moderate who swept into the presidency in 2013, Hassan Rohani. Rohani has
called publicly for greater rights for women, "the right to think
freely" for Iranians in "their private lives," and greater
Iranian diplomatic engagement with the world, although his progress has been
confined to the last of those areas, most notably through the nuclear deal
reached with world powers in July.
But
Washington-based political analyst Ali Afshari says the reformists elected to
parliament in these elections have a "weak" reformist agenda,
suggesting they're not supportive of some of the reformist's more liberal and
pro-democracy demands.
"It's not
clear, after entering the parliament and facing pressure and threats from the
establishment, to what extent they will remain firm on their stances,"
Afshari tells RFE/RL.
For instance,
one reformist lawmaker-elect quickly came under pressure over a quote that
appeared after the vote suggesting that women should be allowed to choose
whether or not they want to wear the hijab, the Islamic head scarf. Parvaneh
Salahshuri reportedly made the comment in a February 29 interview with Italian
journalist Viviana Mazza but, following hard-line criticism, said that her
comments had been "misunderstood." In an interview with the hard-line
Tasnim news agency, Salahshuri said while there could be differences in the way
the wearing of the hijab is enforced, "there is no doubt that it should be
observed." Tasnim quoted her as saying that she "apologizes "and
understands "the sensitivities" regarding the issue.
Parliament
Looks More Moderate
The
hard-liners appear to have lost their dominance in the parliament, where they
have openly challenged Rohani's outreach efforts, including the nuclear deal
and other engagement with the international community, as well as social
policies they deem too liberal.
London-based
analyst Barzin even speculates that the incoming parliament is likely to be
controlled by pro-Rohani forces.
"The
parliament will be split almost evenly between a pro-government camp, the [right-wing]
principlists, and the independents. Each bloc has about 25 percent of the
seats. Some 25 percent of the seats have gone to [run-offs in] the second
round, and will probably again split between the three trends," Barzin
says.
A more
cooperative parliament could make it easier for Rohani to advance his economic
agenda, pave the way for foreign investment, and bring modest social changes.
No Major
Foreign Policy Changes Are Expected
Iran's role in
Syria, where the IRGC is supporting the regime of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, is unlikely to change as the results of these elections.
On the other
hand, analyst Barzin says the moderate win in parliament could positively
affect Iran's ties with regional rival Saudi Arabia by empowering Rohani. The
Saudis broke their ties with Iran after an attack by hard-liners on the Saudi
Embassy in Tehran, which itself followed the execution of a Shi'ite cleric
accused of violent extremism, Nimr Al-Nimr, a move that was strongly condemned
by Iranian officials.
With greater
support at home, Rohani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, will be
in a stronger negotiating position for outreach efforts that have been
criticized by hard-liners, argues Barzin.
"A
stronger government should mean the possibility of [a] greater approach [to] a
political solution [to] the crisis in relations with Saudi Arabia," says
Barzin.
Despite
Appearances, There's No Seismic Shift In The Assembly
The
elimination from the Assembly of Experts of current Chairman Yazdi and the
hawkish theologian Mesbah Yazdi is significant.
Farzan Sabet,
a nuclear security fellow at Stanford University and managing editor of a
website, IranPolitik.com, which focuses on Iranian politics, says hard-line
defeats there are "a win for those who wanted a more moderate
assembly."
Yet the
assembly's composition doesn't appear to have undergone major changes, although
it is perhaps too soon to tell.
"We don't
fully understand what kind of new assembly we are looking at," Sabet says.
And anyways,
Sabet adds, the results of any major shift "would mainly be seen in a
potential future supreme-leader transition, rather than in the short
term."
Analyst
Ashfari cautions that "the majority of seats are still controlled by the
hard-liners, those [on the list] of the influential Qom Society of Seminary
Teachers, and those loyal to [Supreme Leader Ayatollah] Khamenei."
Ex-President
Khatami Remains Influential
The reformist
former President Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005) remains popular despite a media
and public-speaking ban and and his failure to achieve many of his stated
reform goals. He has been given credit for much of the support that reformist
and moderate forces received in these elections, partly the result of a YouTube
clip encouraging his supporters to vote for candidates from the "List Of
Hope."
Tehran-based
professor Sadegh Zibakalam noted that some of those elected to parliament from
Tehran are relative unknowns deeply indebted to Khatami for their victory.
"This shows the depth of people's trust in the senior figures of the
reformist movement," Zibakalam said in the Iranian daily Arman on February
28.
Speaking on
state-controlled television on March 1, moderate conservative lawmaker Ali
Motahari (who won reelection from Tehran) said the long-running media ban on
Khatami had resulted in the opposite of its intended effect. "Those who
enforced the ban on Khatami did so to prevent him from influencing the elections.
But we saw that this policy resulted in [Khatami] having a greater
influence."
Elections Are
Seen As The Only Option For Change
Many Iranians
want to see a stronger economy, more jobs, good ties with Western countries,
and more freedom. Rohani's election to the presidency three years ago and last
week's gains by relative moderates highlight those desires.
The 63 percent
turnout last week suggests that despite the heavily restricted nature of the
Iranian elections and the sharply disputed reelection of Ahmadinejad in 2009
and subsequent crackdown, many Iranians still believe the ballot box is the
only option to achieve gradual change in the Islamic republic. Some of last
week's voters have said they cast their ballots knowing that the elections were
not free but rather a choice between bad and worse.
Khamenei Wins,
Too
The elections
are seen as a victory for Rohani and the moderate forces that are supportive of
last year's nuclear accord, under which Iran has significantly limited
sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
But Rand
Corporation senior analyst Alireza Nader noted that they are also a win for
Khamenei, who had urged even those who don't approve of him to vote. Nader said
in a March 2 analysis that the sizable turnout "eases Khamenei's fear of
his regime losing legitimacy in the face of economic malaise and popular
dissatisfaction."
He added,
citing popular disillusionment from 2009 election and the Green Movement whose
leaders were subsequently put under house arrest: "Khamenei's concerns are
framed by the massive 2009 Green uprising that shook the Iranian regime to its
core. [Rohani's] presidency, the nuclear agreement, a slight improvement in the
economy, and Iran's reduced international isolation and improved regional
position have made the regime much more stable since 2009. And the recent
elections add to this momentum."
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2015. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
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