It seems that the discussion of some kind of declared and recognized status as permanently neutral is a new initiative for Mongolian foreign policy, but at the same time, it appears to be a logical extension of the "Third Neighbor Policy" rather than a real departure from this.
By Julian Dierkes
At the UN
General Assembly, on Sept 29 2015, President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj included a very brief
statement in his address that,
Image Attribute: Mongolian President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj / Source: Wikimedia Commons
Mongolia has pursued an peaceful, open, multi-pillar foreign policy. This stance enabled us to declare Mongolia in a state of permanent neutrality. Our national laws and international commitments [?] are consistent with neutrality principles. Therefore I kindly ask your sympathy and support for Mongolia’s peaceful, open, neutral and active foreign policy efforts. I am convinced that Mongolia’s status of permanent neutrality will contribute to the strengthening of peace, security, and development in our region and the world at large.
16′:42″ – 17′:23″
It seems that
the discussion of some kind of declared and recognized status as permanently
neutral is a new initiative for Mongolian foreign policy, but at the same time,
it appears to be a logical extension of the "Third Neighbor Policy" rather than
a real departure from this.
In short,
permanent neutrality takes one of the main motivations for the "Third Neighbor Policy" – the desire to balance two overbearing neighbours by turning to virtual
neighbours – to a next step by permanently declaring Mongolia to remain in
between these two neighbours, not siding with one or the other, and not
aligning militarily with any outside party to neutralize any – admittedly
somewhat absurd – notion of threats against these neighbours emanating from
Mongolia.
It is also partly
a defensive maneuver to counter pressure from Russia toward a customs union,
and from China toward membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
It is an
extension of the "Third Neighbor Policy" by endearing Mongolia further to
virtual neighbours like Canada, India, or Germany by not only enshrining
democracy, but also enshrining an underdog status vis-a-vis its neighbours.
Finally, this
declaration is aimed at the UN where Mongolia is a candidate for membership in
the Human Rights Council and where Pres Elbegdorj may well be hoping for a
future field of activities beyond his final term as president.
A Brief
Chronology
The notion of
Mongolian permanent neutrality seems to have arisen very quickly. Pres
Elbegdorj seems to have first mentioned this idea in an editorial published on Sept
8 2015.
Following this
public announcement, the National
Security Council took this topic up on Sept 9 and charged the
president with initiating a bill to parliament that would enshrine neutrality
permanently.
Since then the
idea has been pushed by the President, but also by the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs. I was thus sent a prices on the notion of neutrality on Sept 10
suggesting that planning for this initiative had preceded the Sept 8 editorial.
So far, this
proposal culminated in President Elbegdorj’s speech to the UN General Assembly,
though it was included toward the end of that speech in an off-hand manner.
What Does
Neutrality Mean
Formally, the
concept is enshrined in the Hague Convention’s 1907 Sections V (land) and XIII
(sea). In sum (my interpretation), neutral status trades protection of
territory for non-involvement in conflicts, i.e. I will stay out of all
(military) conflicts and return expect everyone to not invade me.
Neutral powers
can still maintain a military for defensive purposes or (I assume and with some
relevance to modern Mongolia) for peace-keeping purposes, though some neutral
powers have disbanded their military (Costa Rica, for example).
Why? Strategic
Thinking
Vis-a-Vis Third
Mongolian
neutrality reinforces perceptions and sympathy for the “plucky democracy”. The
club of declared neutral countries is not a bad club to be a member of with
leaders such as Switzerland and Costa Rica, countries that – like Mongolia –
have and aim to have a greater impact on international affairs than their
economic significance or population size would suggest.
Vis-A-Vis Russia
By appealing to
the world community to safeguard Mongolia’s status as neutral, any threats to
Mongolia or any Russian attempts to draw Mongolia closer into a Russian sphere
of influence (for example the Eurasian Union, etc.) can be resisted. This may
be parallel to Turkmenistan’s intention in declaring neutrality in 1995.
Since the future
will likely hold ever-closer (economic) relations between Mongolia and China,
the neutrality declaration may assuage Russian fears that Mongolia might become
a staging ground for aggression toward Russia, as absurd as that might seem at the
moment given Mongolian popular antipathy toward China.
Vis-A-Vis China
Given Mongolian
antipathy, any kind of military alignment with China is unlikely, but
neutrality would offer a quasi-guarantee that Mongolia will not turn into a
Russian buffer state against China in a military sense again.
In turn, the
neutrality claim may well offer a “defense” against continuing Chinese attempts
to coax Mongolia into membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
given the security-focused nature of that organization.
At the UN
Mongolia has
embraced a number of global security initiatives through the UN. The abolition
of capital punishment comes to mind, but also recognition of Mongolia’s
nuclear-free status. Roles in more limited bodies (chairing Community of Democracies,
OSCE membership, hosting Freedom Online Coalition, hosting ASEM, etc.) have
similarly bolstered Mongolia’s credential as an actively engaged member of the
international community.
For Elbegdorj
One of the
questions that may present itself to Pres Elbegdorj is to find a role after the
end of his final term, i.e. in summer 2017. Presidents Ochirbat and Bagabandi
have become relatively quiet in their public roles (though Ochirbat continues
to serve on Mongolia’s Constitutional Court). President Enkhbayar has
(in)famously re-entred the daily combat of party politics. While some have
speculated that Pres Elbegdorj may harbour ambitions to “do a Putin” and
somehow stand for re-election as president in 2021, his active engagement of
the international community seems to suggest much more strongly that he may be
on a low-key campaign for some kind of role at the UN, perhaps heading up a UN
body or agency.
Opposition
There have been
some dissenting views in Mongolia. Disagreement has focused on two aspects,
- If push came to shove, Mongolia
should side with Russia
- What does it mean to be permanently
neutral and does this not limit options in the future massively.
Ambassador J.
Enkhsaikhan (a preeminent expert on Mongolia’s security, especially
institutionalizing the nuclear weapon free zone status) has probably been the most vocal critic of the neutrality
initiative.
Acknowledgement :
The author extends thanks to Mendee J
contributed significantly to my thinking and information about this issue.
About The Author:
Dr. Julian Dierkes, Associate
Professor and Keidanren Chair in Japanese Research, Institute of Asian Research. University of British Columbia. He primarily focuses on
institutional dynamics of education reform in Japan. He's also very interested
in mining regulation in Mongolia. He can be reached at his email : j.dierkes@ubc.ca / Twitter ID: @jdierkes
Publication Details:
This work was
originally published at Mongolia Focus, UBC Canada under is licensed under a Creative CommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.5 Canada.
