The visit of the Indian PM to UAE after an interval of 34 years marks a beginning of renewed engagement with the region, coming at a time when the whole region is undergoing metamorphic geopolitical and strategic change. The visit signifies the active foreign policy adopted by the current dispensation in India. Further, UAE visit also symbolizes the larger strategic objective of Indian foreign policy i.e. to engage with governments on all fronts where national security stakes of India are directly or indirectly involved.
By Shashwat Tiwari
The visit of the Indian PM to
UAE after an interval of 34 years marks a beginning of renewed engagement with
the region, coming at a time when the whole region is undergoing metamorphic
geopolitical and strategic change. The visit signifies the active foreign
policy adopted by the current dispensation in India. Further, UAE visit also
symbolizes the larger strategic objective of Indian foreign policy i.e. to
engage with governments on all fronts where national security stakes of India
are directly or indirectly involved.
The visit has been highly
successful in its outcome; this can be ascertained from the language of the
Joint Statement issued by both the governments. The Joint Statement
clearly demonstrates foreign policy recalibration on part of UAE, with respect
to its Pakistan policy. At the start of this highly anticipated visit the
objectives laid out by the Indian side was to push for better trade and
investment relationship as well as to court UAE support to fight international
terrorism and other trans-national crimes. It appears that the Indian side has
been able to achieve what it set out to do in the first place.
The Joint Statement
encompasses various agreements ranging from economics, defence, security, law
enforcement, cultural, and consular services to realize the full scope of the
India-UAE relationship. The bilateral relationship has been upgraded to a
comprehensive strategic partnership level, which symbolizes the importance of
UAE for India and role UAE can play in its wider West Asia policy. At a time,
when bilateral ties bound by historical and cultural affinity needed to be
refurbished to reflect the current geopolitical and geostrategic realities,
India seems to have played a masterstroke by warming up to the UAE.
The substance of the joint
statement issued by India and UAE has managed to re-define the contours of a
relationship that had long been languishing on account of political ineptitude
and lack of strategic foresight. In a remarkable resolution, both countries
denounced and opposed terrorism in "all forms and manifestations, wherever
committed and by whomever, calling on all states to reject and abandon the use
of terrorism against other countries, dismantle terrorism infrastructures where
they exist, and bring perpetrators of terrorism to justice."
UAE has historically been
closely tied to Pakistan on the strategic front. However, the consensus on
dealing with the scourge of terrorism by both countries, shows how well the
Indian leadership has read the changing strategic realities in the West Asia
and has managed to court it to their strategic advantage. This is a real
diplomatic triumph and the UAE endorsing India's concerns on terrorism and
extremism underscores the challenges facing the Gulf kingdoms at a time when
the Islamic State is rising and sectarian divide in the region is widening.
Often India's policy towards
West Asia is viewed through the prism of India-Iran relations. The international
community has always raised flags over India’s engagement with Iran and support
to her during the sanction period, while missing India's simultaneous
engagement with Arab Gulf states and Israel. Off late, India's engagements with
the Arab states in the West Asia has gained momentum, even as Iran continues to
be center of global attention.
According to the Joint
statement, Trade and investment will also get an impetus after PM Modi's visit.
The UAE's decision to step up its investment in India including through the
establishment of UAE-India Infrastructure Investment Fund, with the aim of
reaching a target of US $ 75 billion does not only bode well for the Indian
government but also for many foreign investors who are looking at India as the
crown jewel in Asia, in the aftermath of the Chinese stock market crisis. The
UAE will also be helping Indian companies to invest in infrastructure
development in the Gulf country and will be tapping into India's expertise in
small and medium enterprises.
One of the driving forces for
India-UAE ties has been the energy sector. The GCC countries supply 45 per cent
of India's petroleum; the Saudi Arabia is responsible for a quarter of those
supplies, and Kuwait, Oman, and the UAE are other major suppliers. Qatar
remains India's exclusive supplier of natural gas, annually supplying five
million tons of LNG to India. The Iranian government's decision to renege on
some oil supply commitments, after India's vote against Iran at the IAEA, has
also impelled New Delhi to diversify suppliers.
Developments within West Asia
will have a great bearing on the future of India's relations with the region
and her stature in global forum. Till now, it appeared that the Indian foreign
policy for the region was favoring the status quo considering regional
stability is essential for Indian interests in the region. However, the Prime
Minister’s decision to establish deeper ties with UAE appears to be the
precursor to a policy shift on West Asia. Nevertheless, further foray into the
region will be a delicate balancing act due to several competing interests
extant in the West Asia. For example, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran
for regional leadership is likely to intensify along sectarian lines in the
coming years. Further, the Israel-Iran rivalry, in the aftermath of the nuclear
deal will in all likelihood witness intense efforts on Israel’s part to
maintain the status quo as far as the power dynamics in the region are concerned.
Given India's growing stakes in the Gulf, it will be compelled to adopt a more
nuanced policy to maneuver such competing interest, whilst reasserting her role
as a great and responsible power and extracting adequate strategic and economic
leverage at the same time.
PM Modi's visit to the UAE has
emphasized India's continuing stakes in a region that is going through a period
of significant yet unpredictable change. It would be in the interest of India
to maintain a stable balance of power to emerge in a region rife with multiple
fault-lines as it makes further inroads into the West Asian region. On a
positive note, a region, which was long ignored by India for ill-conceived
reasons has finally found utterance in the Indian strategic and diplomatic sphere
on account of Prime Minister Modi’s successful visit.
The
author is the Strategic Affairs Researcher at the Oval Observer Foundation, New
Delhi.
About the Author:
Shashwat Tiwari is a political science and international affairs graduate, with experience of conducting research on West Asia and Energy Issues. Prior to, joining Oval Observer Foundation he was working for the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi as a Research Associate for West Asia maritime issues and Energy Security. He has done his Master’s in Diplomacy, Law, Business from Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA) and has done his graduation in Political Science and Economics from University of Allahabad. He has been published previously by WorldFocus and chapters pertaining to West Asia for scholarly books published by the National Maritime Foundation.