By Shalini Das Jadavpur Association of International Relations , Kolkata, INDIA The recent discovery of Hydrocarbon resources at...
By Shalini Das
Jadavpur Association of International Relations, Kolkata, INDIA
The
recent discovery of Hydrocarbon resources at Tamar & Leviathan Gas Fields (Levant basin) in the Eastern Mediterranean has
brought about serious turmoil and deficit of a concrete internal and external
policy by Israel and its neighbors to bring about a positive outcome without
exacerbating the existing conflicts.
“Uprisings and violent repression in Syria; the risk of war between
Israel and Iran; profound uncertainty in Iraq; the withdrawal from Afghanistan;
and incomplete transitions in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen together” (1)
would make it difficult for the entire region to protect its internal peace and
commercial interests.
In this circumstance, the Washington involvement in this
issue makes the picture a little complicated due to two important factors: Firstly, Israel’s primary interest of
exporting gas to Europe would not seek supply routes via Turkey while
encouraging cooperation with Cyprus and Greece.
Secondly, “Israel, Cyprus, and Greece have all courted Russian
investment in their energy sectors” (1). However, Washington would never wish
the Turkish doors to remain closed while supplying gas to Europe if the
politics of Israel permits and at the same time the Russian involvement in the
energy sector would not be encouraged which would undermine the European
efforts to diversify energy resources.
Over the years it had been observed that
since 2004, the Houston-based Nobel Energy had been controlling 47% of stake in
Israel’s offshore Mari-B field that produces gas in the Israeli domestic
market. Nobel initial production agreement with Israel suggested a regulated
tax frame work until 2010 when the “Israeli Finance Ministry commission
recommended raising taxes on energy production to bring them into line with
current international practice, recommendations that the government of Prime Minister
Binyamin Netanyahu subsequently endorsed”.(2)
In the light of the above factors, it can be discussed that there is a
high possibility for Israel to either collaborate with a European sector or a
US-firm, Russia’s Gazprom, Novatek or Chinese National Offshore Oil Company
(CNOOC) due to the fact that the Israeli companies lack experiences in brining
resource into market from offshore, further, “Russia has close ties with
Israel, Cyprus and Greece. Around 1 million of Israel’s 7 million citizens are
immigrants from the former Soviet Union, including many prominent business
people. Moscow views the Republic of Cyprus as an important partner and
continues to back it in disputes with the “TRNC” and Turkey” (1)which has
created a serious pressure on the US Government.
The
second factor mentioned above regarding the Turkish doors have brought about
serious concerns for Washington due to the fact that Israel seeks to worsen
relations with Turkey which could have been a commercially viable option to set
pipelines via Turkey to Europe. However, this option is no longer valid in the
current political scenario. Israel has been considering other alternatives
including “pipelines or electricity cables to Cyprus and Greece, a liquid
natural gas (LNG) plant in Cyprus, an onshore pipeline to Jordan, as well as a
floating LNG plant allowing Israel to sell gas in European or Asian markets.
Each of these options has its strengths and weaknesses, including security
risks”.(3) Another alternative that Washington decides to set up is a pipeline
conjoining Cyprus and Greece which could increase the rift between Israel and
Turkey. However, the prime motive of USA is not to exacerbate the differences
in the region but possibly establish its own control over the commercial issues
of the area. In the meanwhile the increasing chances of conflict between Israel
and Turkey has made Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu announce that “the
Turkish navy would patrol the eastern Mediterranean’s international waters more
actively to prevent what he termed Israeli “bullying.”(4) Israel on the other
hand has started building its own naval patrols around the Mediterranean gas
fields to curb the Turkish threats and the rockets launched from Lebanon by
Hezbollah. Further, Israeli military cooperation with Greece and Cyprus have
allowed them to sign the search and rescue cooperation in February 2012 to
prevent threats in the EEZ of Cyprus. Additional protection measures have been
demanded from U.S. based security firms. (1) However, since the discovery of
the hydrocarbon resource, the U.S. administration considers that Israel and
Cyprus are within their legal rights in prospecting and developing energy
resources in their EEZs, Washington is quietly urging them to remain open to
Turkey’s involvement in future projects, when political circumstances
permit.(5)
The
region of Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Europe has become an area of
internal conflicts especially with regard to the position of Turkey in the
region which happens to be the only Middle Eastern country playing its role in
the region. However, the recent developments state that the relations between
Israel and Turkey are improving which is being possible through negotiations
and talks. However, with regard to Israel, the foreign policy is observed from
the position of security interest and internal conflicts between the
Palestinians have become a serious issue of concern because of the fact that
thousands of rockets fly from the Gaza strip every day into Israel, making the
area prone to trouble. Further, the Israeli army is aiming for protection
against the Palestinians from the Gaza strip which has become a serious problem
for the Israelis due to the fact that she has to supply goods to Gaza to
provide assistance to the people in the region because not everybody in Gaza
are Palestinians. Hence, internal
problems of Israel is affecting her foreign relations as a result of which both
Russia and USA are trying to pave their way into the matters of the Eastern
Mediterranean and the way in which Israel should carve out her foreign
relations with Turkey.
Further,
with the position of Turkey, it is important to note that its position in the
region is a prerequisite because of the fact that firstly it is the only Middle
Eastern player in the zone and secondly if Turkey tries to alienate itself from
the region, there will be less chance of success for the coalition.
0
1. Policy Brief- Resource Rivalry in the Eastern
Mediterranean: The View from Washington by Jeffrey Mankoff, June 2012, p.1
2. State of Israel
Ministry of Finance, Summary of Draft Conclusions by the Sheshinski Committee,
November 10, 2010, http://www.financeisrael.mof.gov.il/FinanceIsrael/
Pages/en/News/20101110.aspx; stated in Policy Brief- Resource Rivalry in the
Eastern Mediterranean: The View from Washington by Jeffrey Mankoff , June 2012,
p.2
3. These options are
considered further in the accompanying paper by Simon Henderson, “The Case of
Israel,” German Marshall Fund, June 2012; stated in Policy Brief- Resource
Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View from Washington by Jeffrey
Mankoff, June 2012, p.2
4. “Erdogan warns Israel:
Turkey can send warships to east Mediterranean at any time,” Reuters, September
15, 2011.; stated in Policy Brief- Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean:
The View from Washington by Jeffrey Mankoff ; June 2012; p:2
5. See “East Mediterranean
Gas Politics: A Third Corridor?” Natural Gas Europe, March 28,2012, http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/east-mediterranean-gas-third-corridor.;
stated in Policy Brief- Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View
from Washington by Jeffrey Mankoff ; June 2012; p:4
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