By Roger S. Farhat Since the international campaign got underway against the Islamic State (also known by the acronyms ISIS, IS)...
By Roger S. Farhat
Since the
international campaign got underway against the Islamic State (also known by
the acronyms ISIS, IS) in Iraq and Syria, the group's ambitious supporters have
been empowered by the dazzling ISIS media department on social media and its
relentless calls for threatening campaigns against member states of the
coalition, their officials and people. Notably, anti-Saudi rhetoric, as well as
Twitter campaigns has increased markedly since January.
This
anti-Saudi sentiment was first witnessed when Saudi Arabia featured among the
first batch of five countries mentioned by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in his November
13, 2014 speech, in which he acknowledged pledges of obedience and loyalty to
him and his group by local jihadi factions in the relevant countries, crowning
them as provincial divisions of his Islamic State.
On January
30, the Anbar provincial division of the Islamic State in Iraq distributed a
brief message on pro-ISIS Twitter accounts claiming credit for an attack
on a Saudi outpost on the Iraqi-Saudi border that took place three days
earlier. The message reads: "Storming a border post on the artificial
border with the Arabian Peninsula, which led to the elimination of all who were
in it, and taking what was inside as spoils, then blowing it up."
Subsequently,
reports surfaced on social media claiming that ISIS elements had managed to
infiltrate the borders and hide among locals in the town of Rafha. While no official confirmation of the
infiltration has been released by Saudi Arabia or the Islamic State, a famous
Saudi blogger and tweeter named Mujtahid who is known for his credible
if sometimes controversial leaks from within the narrow circles of the royal
family and who boosts some 1.2 million followers, wrote on his Twitter
account:
Details: attack on the border-guards by a cell
coming from Iraq, supported by a domestic cell, leading to the flee of guards
and assimilation of the two groups in the suburbs of Rafha.
Four Islamic
State militants carried out an attack earlier, on January 5, near the town of
Arar, killing a Saudi general and two border guards. Security forces later
stated that the four attackers had initially been fighting in Syria but went to
Iraq shortly before the attack.
Only a
couple of days earlier, a video released by the ar-Raqqah provincial division
of the Islamic State featured Saudi fighters threatening that the group would
invade Saudi Arabia, and inciting Muslims in the Kingdom to carry out attacks
against "disbelieving sects."
The video,
entitled, "Message from Lion of the Peninsula," which was distributed
on Twitter and jihadi forums, comes as part of a series of Islamic State
videos to celebrate the death of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz. It begins
with excerpts from a January 26 audio speech "Say, Die in Your Rage"
by Islamic State spokesman al-‘Adnani, where he briefly mentions[1]
Saudi Arabia and rejoices over the death of the Saudi King. One of the fighters
in the video said that he and his countrymen had joined the Islamic State with
the intention of returning home as "conquerors." Another fighter
addressed the Saudi people, promising al-Zarqawi-style attacks in the Kingdom
stating: "We
will booby-trap the cars. We will make explosive belts. We will test the
silenced weapons."
Another
video, titled “A Meeting on the Occasion of the Death of the Tyrant Abd Obama
bin Abdul Ingleez (Slave of Obama the Son of the Slave of the English)” was
posted on YouTube on January 25, in which alleged fighters from the
Islamic State’s “Yemen Province” celebrated the death of the Saudi King and
threatened to launch attacks inside Saudi Arabia. Filmed at a desert setting,
four armed and masked men delivered gloating speeches and recited poetry. One
of them vowed to the Saudi government that the Islamic State "Mujahideen
are preparing the gear for you" adding that "By Allah the Magnificent, we will not
be satisfied until we raise this banner over the Kaabah," where Sheikh Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will lead
prayer, according to the fighter.
An
older video was posted online on January
12, featuring around a
dozen Saudi Islamic State fighters based in Syria's northeastern province of
al-Hasaka, one of which delivered the message lauding the attack on Shi'ites in
the Saudi governorate of al-Ahsa on November 4, 2014. The video, which was
distributed on Twitter and jihadi forums, was the second episode in a
series titled "To You, My People, a Message," the first and later
ones directed at France.
Commenting
on reactions to the killing of seven Shiite worshippers by homegrown Sunni
assailants, the fighter denounced the Saudi clergymen who condemned the attack,
and advised Saudis to disavow any relatives working for or supporting the Saudi
government: "If
you have a soldier, a member in the military field, in the Interior Ministry,
first disavow him, then kill him."
Pro- and
Anti-Islamic State Saudis Face-Off on Twitter:
The
anti-Saudi monarchy predilection and campaigns orchestrated by jihadists from around
the Islamist spectrum are neither new nor uncommon, as they surface at
intervals, depending on regional and international developments and events.
However,
these sentiments were amplified and gained new magnitude when the
self-appointed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi vowed in his November 13, 2014
speech "to the dislike of the disbelievers,"
to spread his tentacles to the oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and threatened
its rulers, saying “They will not know rest from now on."
Back then,
al-Baghdadi announced the establishment of a provincial division in Saudi
Arabia, among other theaters, and dedicated a section of his speech to incite his supporters in the Kingdom to attack
local Shiites: "Draw your
swords! Deal with the rafidah [Shiites] first, wherever you find them."
The next targets are the royal family,
Westerners and American bases, according to al-Baghdadi, who assured the Saudi
people that the "vanguards of
the Islamic State will soon reach you."
Shortly thereafter, Twitter became the
battlefield for both Islamic State supporters and those loyal to the Saudi
regime, particularly via the hash-tag #Islamic_States_soon_in_Arabian_Peninsula
(translated from Arabic), launched by IS to propagate their threats.
Since then,
digital campaigns on social media have intensified, both in the form of
individual efforts and Islamic State-sponsored systematic campaigns. The death
of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abd al-Aziz presented an additional opportunity for
a blitz of terror threats and anti-monarchy propaganda in a bid to provoke fear
and uncertainty inside the kingdom, particularly among the ruling elite, its
beneficiaries and supporters.
One Twitter
user posted a series of messages on February 25, pointing to the Saudi province
of Taif, where, he claims, the important military radar systems, bunkers and
H.Q.s are located. He followed the tweet with a suggestion to change the
province's name to "the Peninsula's Fallujah, given, he claims "that
it will witness the most significant and fierce battles."
A series of
images depicting Islamic State fighters parading in Mecca and the streets of
major Saudi cities, such as Riyadh, flooded Twitter in January. Another
set of digital images featured iconic Saudi centers stamped with the Islamic
State seal, conveying an apparent message that these destinations are now on
the groups' crosshairs.
While some seemed an authentic part of the
campaigns, other images appeared to be fabricated by a third party, judging
from the broken or poor Arabic language used in the messages printed on the
images or accompanying tweets. One IS-supporter claimed that the account behind
some of the images, like the above three, is in fact run by Iran, basing her
claim on the translation caption on Twitter, which stated
"Translation from Farsi."
Caricatures
also featured as tactics deployed in the campaign and they were used to portray
the Arab rulers as lackeys of the Jews and Christians, which appeals to many
frustrated Muslims across the Arab countries.
Later in February, the anti-Saudi crusade took a new form as it shifted from sowing fear and confusion among Saudis to focusing on discrediting the royal family by pointing to their policies that contradict the religion of Islam. This strategy is one of the many easy ways for Islamic State recruiters and propagandists to sway ultra-conservative audiences in their favor.
Influential
figures that voice unequivocal stances against the Islamic State and condemn
its atrocities and declared intentions are routinely smeared and marked by the
group's support base, putting many of them on a target list. Moreover, on
February 23, several pro-Islamic State Twitter entities announced the
disclosure of the person behind the controversial @Wikibaghdady (also known as Baghdadi Leaks) responsible
for exposing classified details about the Islamic State's inner circle of
decision-making, al-Baghdadi's top aides and the Shura Council, in addition to
shedding light on the real reasons for the severe rift between ISIS and Jabhat
al-Nusra (JN).
The account that
was established on December 5, 2013 and generated shock-waves within the jihadi
world, remains active. Throughout last year, Wikibaghdady published full
names of individuals inside Saudi Arabia, secret meetings where attendees
allegedly plotted attacks on behalf of the Islamic State, together with details
about purported sleeper-cells lying dormant in a number of localities inside
the Kingdom. A wide-scale crackdown by the authorities resulted in the
apprehension of dozens of people whose names were mentioned on the Twitter
account. The operator was finally identified as Ahmad al-Qayedi, according to
Islamic State activists, who requested that his photo be disseminated for the
purpose of retribution.
It should be noted
that the Islamic State militants, supporters and sympathizers who took part in the
campaign against the house of al-Saud and incited against their regime are
almost entirely Saudi nationals. Likewise, those who engaged in counter
campaigns were mostly Saudis, some of which acted individually as opposed to
simultaneous apparent state-sponsored campaigns.
Yet, not all
those who oppose the declared Islamic State schemes for Saudi Arabia share the
same motive. One critic, clearly identified by his full name, quoted a Quranic
verse by the Prophet Muhammad that reads: "They kill the Muslims and spare the
pagans." He follows
the quote with a comment of his own, wondering "Where are they [ISIS] with regards to
Israel and Iran," as if
implying that the Islamic State is after the Sunnis, while sparing the Shiites
and the Jews, who are apparently those that should be targeted instead. This
sentiment is part of a broader trend shared and voiced by numerous
"mainstream" Sunni Muslims across the world.
Brewing Threat:
Saudi Arabia
is one of the countries participating in the U.S.-led international coalition
against the Islamic State, and a main ally of the U.S. and the U.K., which
makes it a legitimate target for reprisal attacks, as al-Baghdadi said last
November. Until the
takeover of Mosul on June 10, 2014, violent Sunni insurgency in Iraq - in which
al-Baghdadi's group played a major role - allegedly enjoyed steady support from Saudi Arabia against the rule of former
Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki, who accused Riyadh on more than one occasion of
fomenting sectarian violence in his country. Since then, things have taken a
different turn between the Islamic State and Saudi Arabia as the Kingdom
sponsored several of the prominent Islamist factions in Syria, some of which
entered in bloody conflict with ISIS throughout 2014.
Shortly
after King Salman succeeded his late half-brother King Abdullah bin Abdel Aziz
to the throne, he made a generous giveaway, totaling over $32 billion in the
form of a pay hike for state employees, following in the footsteps of his
predecessor, who made a handout of $37 billion, mainly for the unemployed, in
February 2011, soon after the outbreak of the Arab upheavals. This generosity
was meant to safeguard the situation from acts of unrest and prevent potential
disturbances.
Maintaining
domestic stability remains a major concern for Saudi Arabia, given that the
Kingdom is surrounded by conflicts, amid growing grievances at home, whether
Shiite dissatisfaction and oppression, or widespread poverty. With the Islamic
State moving ever closer to the borders from the north as well as the south,
pressure on the al-Saud regime is significantly mounting especially with the
regime and the Islamic State competing on implementing strict Islamic ideals,
practices and penal codes based on Sharia law. However, between the regime and
the Islamic State, the latter is the one perceived as truly Islamic and
representative of pure Islam among Muslim hardliners, who consider family
monarchies un-Islamic.
Saudi Arabia
embraces the intolerant extremist Wahhabi Islamic doctrine, whose teachings are
the catalyst behind most radical takfiri groups and practices around the
world, and from which salafi-jihadi entities derive religious legitimacy to justify
their violence. Saudi Arabia is also a hotbed for a large percentage of
homegrown fundamentalists manifested in the overwhelming numbers of Saudi
nationals fighting on jihadi battlefields worldwide, particularly in Iraq and
Syria. With the family monarchy widely perceived as a corrupt Western lackey,
coupled with a large Shiite minority, and thousands of Saudi Islamic State
fighters and sympathizers, the scene is set for the group to spread unrest and
bloodshed.
Given past incidents and an increasingly hostile
diatribe, fueled by Saudi participation in the war efforts against the Islamic
State, albeit on a very limited scale, the likelihood of an ISIS terror attack
inside the country is becoming more realistic.
Expectedly,
the developments in Yemen and the Saudi-led air campaign against the Shiite
Houthi rebels will [in]directly play into the hands of AQAP and the Islamic
State provincial division as the country disintegrates and degenerates into
total chaos. This might only temporarily delay IS schemes against the Kingdom
of al-Saud, given that a common rejectionist (pejorative reference for
Shiites) enemy is under intensive "Sunni" attack. To further cement a
Sunni consensus for its kinetic operation against the Shiite
Houthis, the regime is trying to resonate through the multitude of
Saudi-financed and controlled media outlets that it is countering an
existential Iranian threat creeping closer to its backyard in Yemen. It is
doubtful that the flexing of Saudi muscles and the display of power and military
prowess will intimidate the Islamic State or leave an impression on its many
sympathizers and supporters in and around the Kingdom. Their threat will lie
dormant till they decide the convenient timing to implement their schemes.
After all, who would have imagined that the very first attack to be
orchestrated by the recently established IS Yemeni division would be the deadliest in the country's
history!
If it sticks to its modus operandi, the Islamic State
will seek to stage random hit-and-run raids on border
posts and patrols, SVBIEDs against security installations, and intensify its
targeting of Shiite populations and places of worship, before it becomes
entrenched enough to embark on high-profile daring attacks, such as attempts to
assassinate officials, royals and military personnel. Additionally, the Islamic
State is likely to execute sophisticated plots to disrupt oil exports given that
the sector is the Kingdom's major source of revenue. Moreover, the Islamic State might well resort
to systematic targeting of Western expats and residential compounds in a bid to
drive Westerners out of "Muhammad's land."
The views expressed are the writer’s own.
References:
[1] Regarding Saudi
Arabia and the death of the king, al-‘Adnani said: "We ask Allah to
cast him into hell - and wretched is the destination - to the
severest of punishments, with Pharaoh and Hāmān. […] We ask Allah the exalted to destroy
al-Salul (a derogatory term for the house of al-Saud), the dogs of the Jews and
Crusaders along with their helpers and supporters from amongst the evil
scholars and the callers to deviance and to hasten the liberation of the lands
of al-Haramayn and the Peninsula of Muhammad."
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